Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index rose one point in June, to a level of 99. June marks the fourth straight month of increases in the index, with the index flat or increasing for every reading since September 2010. June’s reading is 16 points, or 19 percent, above the index cyclical low of 83. Year-to-date the index has averaged 96, six points above the average for all of 2010. May’s level was revised up one point, to a level of 98.
“The Texas Economic Activity Index has shown consistent, strong performance over the first half of 2011,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Job growth, increased drilling activity, firm trade and retail sales have contributed to a solid three quarters of economic growth in Texas. Even with oil prices now down in the range of $85 a barrel, I expect to see continued solid drilling activity. Ongoing job growth is key to a healthy economy and Texas is a job growth leader. Total employment for the state is now approaching its pre-recession peak. However, there is increasing potential for slower growth outside of Texas to begin to exert a drag on the state economy. We remain on alert for signs of recession in the U.S. economy and in Europe.”
The Texas Economic Activity Index equally weights eight, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. The eight indicators reflect activity in the manufacturing, travel, and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays. The Index levels represent a three-month moving average, used to smooth monthly volatility. The Index is benchmarked so that 2008 equals 100. A complete, revised historical series dating to 1997 is available upon request.