Monthly Archives: September 2011

August Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Other Data

Posted on September 28, 2011 by Comerica Economics

Stalling, but Not Falling New Orders for Durable Goods decreased by just 0.1 percent in August as automotive orders eased. New Home Sales for August fell by 2.3 percent to a 295,000 unit annual rate. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence … Continue reading →

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Posted in Daily, General, United States | Comments Off

Comerica Economic Weekly

Posted on September 23, 2011 by Comerica Economics

The FOMC voted to extend the average maturity of its balance sheet by purchasing $400 billion of Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of six to 30 years. This will be “sterilized” by the sale of an equal amount of Treasuries … Continue reading →

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Posted in General, Weekly | Comments Off

FOMC Policy, August Existing Home Sales, Odds of Recession

Posted on September 21, 2011 by Comerica Economics

A Simple Twist of Rates The FOMC will launch a new “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long-term interest rates. The FOMC repeated its view that the Fed funds rate would remain near zero through mid-2013. According to the … Continue reading →

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Posted in Daily, General, United States | Comments Off

August Residential Construction, FOMC Preview

Posted on September 20, 2011 by Comerica Economics

Builders Rained Out, Fed Awash in Expectations Housing Starts for August decreased by 5.0 percent to a 571,000 unit annual pace. Permits for new residential construction increased by 3.2 percent to a 620,000 unit pace. An FOMC policy announcement is … Continue reading →

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Posted in General, United States | Comments Off

Comerica Economic Weekly

Posted on September 16, 2011 by Comerica Economics

The euro-zone remains a key source of downside risk for the U.S. economy. The likelihood of significant debt restructuring for Greece is highly elevated. The consequences of a hard default are very serious and would extend in two dimensions, to … Continue reading →

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Posted in General, United States | Comments Off

August CPI, IP/CU, UI Claims

Posted on September 15, 2011 by Comerica Economics

 Inflation Hotter Than Expected, Manufacturing Output Up, Labor Weak The Consumer Price Index for August increased by 0.4 percent with pressure from energy and apparel. The core CPI is now up 2.0 percent over the past 12 months. Rents are … Continue reading →

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August Retail Sales and PPI, July Business Inventories

Posted on September 14, 2011 by Comerica Economics

Retailers Dodge a Bullet, Sales Unchanged Retail Sales for August were unchanged despite reports of swooning consumer confidence. Ex-auto Retail Sales increased by 0.1 percent. Auto retail sales dipped by 0.3 percent. The Producer Price Index for August was unchanged … Continue reading →

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Posted on September 9, 2011 by Comerica Economics

President Obama unveiled a $447 billion fiscal stimulus plan Thursday evening. The plan features a variety of spending and tax cut initiatives focused on job creation. Even with a rapid and intact passage of the proposed legislation by Congress, it … Continue reading →

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July International Trade, August UI Claims, Beige Book, ECB

Posted on September 8, 2011 by Comerica Economics

Trade Gap Narrows, Providing Lift to Q3 GDP The U.S. International Trade gap narrowed in July to -$44.8 billion, after bulging in May and June.  Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance gained 2,000 to hit 414,000 for the week ending Sept. … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Activity, General, United States | Comments Off

Recession Watch: Teetering on the Edge

Posted on September 7, 2011 by Comerica Economics

Our baseline forecast calls for an ongoing weak-to-moderate economic expansion characterized by continued solid corporate profits, steady business investment, low interest rates and moderate energy prices, but only subdued job creation, constrained consumer spending and weak government spending.  In this … Continue reading →

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