Monthly Archives: September 2011

August Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Other Data

Stalling, but Not Falling New Orders for Durable Goods decreased by just 0.1 percent in August as automotive orders eased. New Home Sales for August fell by 2.3 percent to a 295,000 unit annual rate. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

The FOMC voted to extend the average maturity of its balance sheet by purchasing $400 billion of Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of six to 30 years. This will be “sterilized” by the sale of an equal amount of Treasuries … Continue reading

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FOMC Policy, August Existing Home Sales, Odds of Recession

A Simple Twist of Rates The FOMC will launch a new “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long-term interest rates. The FOMC repeated its view that the Fed funds rate would remain near zero through mid-2013. According to the … Continue reading

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August Residential Construction, FOMC Preview

Builders Rained Out, Fed Awash in Expectations Housing Starts for August decreased by 5.0 percent to a 571,000 unit annual pace. Permits for new residential construction increased by 3.2 percent to a 620,000 unit pace. An FOMC policy announcement is … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

The euro-zone remains a key source of downside risk for the U.S. economy. The likelihood of significant debt restructuring for Greece is highly elevated. The consequences of a hard default are very serious and would extend in two dimensions, to … Continue reading

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August CPI, IP/CU, UI Claims

 Inflation Hotter Than Expected, Manufacturing Output Up, Labor Weak The Consumer Price Index for August increased by 0.4 percent with pressure from energy and apparel. The core CPI is now up 2.0 percent over the past 12 months. Rents are … Continue reading

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August Retail Sales and PPI, July Business Inventories

Retailers Dodge a Bullet, Sales Unchanged Retail Sales for August were unchanged despite reports of swooning consumer confidence. Ex-auto Retail Sales increased by 0.1 percent. Auto retail sales dipped by 0.3 percent. The Producer Price Index for August was unchanged … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

President Obama unveiled a $447 billion fiscal stimulus plan Thursday evening. The plan features a variety of spending and tax cut initiatives focused on job creation. Even with a rapid and intact passage of the proposed legislation by Congress, it … Continue reading

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July International Trade, August UI Claims, Beige Book, ECB

Trade Gap Narrows, Providing Lift to Q3 GDP The U.S. International Trade gap narrowed in July to -$44.8 billion, after bulging in May and June.  Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance gained 2,000 to hit 414,000 for the week ending Sept. … Continue reading

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Recession Watch: Teetering on the Edge

Our baseline forecast calls for an ongoing weak-to-moderate economic expansion characterized by continued solid corporate profits, steady business investment, low interest rates and moderate energy prices, but only subdued job creation, constrained consumer spending and weak government spending.  In this … Continue reading

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