Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index was flat in July, unchanged at a level of 99. June’s reading is 16 points, or 19 percent, above the index cyclical low of 83. Year-to-date the index has averaged 96, six points above the average for all of 2010.
“Texas is a growth leader for the U.S. economy, with strong high tech and energy sectors and strong demographic growth,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “However, the recent downshift in global macroeconomic expectations is a warning sign for Texas, and lower energy prices could sap the strength from the energy sector. With the likelihood of a U.S. recession before the end of 2012 now at 50 percent, we have to consider what a recession might look like for Texas. My expectation is that if we do see a U.S. recession, it will be less severe than 2008/2009. Texas would feel the drag of weaker energy and non-energy exports, but Texas would again be among the last in, and the first out, of a new recession.”