Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index reversed a one point dip in August, rising to a level of 99 in September. September’s reading is 16 points, or 19 percent, above the index cyclical low of 83. Year-to-date the index has averaged 97, seven percent above the average for all of 2010.
“The third quarter of 2011 ended with an uptick in economic activity for Texas. However, when we take the last four data points together, we see signs that economic growth in Texas is easing after a two-year rebound from the Great Recession,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Job creation in Texas cooled over the third quarter of 2011 and so far into the fourth quarter as well. Manufacturing activity in Texas dipped in November and expectations about future business activity are a little cooler. So far, the flattening out of our Texas Index looks similar to what we saw in the middle of 2010, a period that was followed by strong gains. Higher oil prices, now at about $100/barrel, are good news for the state, but weaker global economic conditions, increasingly visible in Europe, are a growing drag.”