Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index was flat in October, unchanged at a level of 99. October’s reading is 16 points, or 19 percent, above the index cyclical low of 83. Year-to-date the index has averaged 97, eight percent above the average for all of 2010.
“The Texas economy is still growing, but in recent months the pace of growth has eased, keeping our index flat for October,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “The good news is that job creation ticked up in October after flattening out over the previous three months. I expect that ongoing gains to employment and manufacturing activity through the end of 2011 will lift the Texas Index out of its current flat phase. Lower oil prices are a risk to the state’s economy. Weaker global macroeconomic conditions imply weaker demand growth and less price pressure in the months ahead. Another downside risk to job growth is the American Airlines bankruptcy. However, even with visible downside risks, I expect the Texas economy to continue to be a growth leader.”