Comerica Bank’s Texas Index Flattens in 2013

Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index fell slightly in May, declining 0.1 percentage points to a level of 103.6. The May reading is 32 points, or 45 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.5. The index averaged 102 points for all of 2012, 10 points above the average for full-year 2011. No revisions were made to April’s index reading of 103.7.

“Our Texas Index continues to level out in 2013. Some components of the index, notably, payroll employment, have improved through the first five months of the year. However, other components, such as hotel occupancy, residential building permits and the rotary rig count have either stabilized or dipped so far in 2013. The flattening of the index is consistent with a step down in the rate of economic growth for Texas in mid-2013. This step down in economic growth will be felt not only in Texas but in most other states as well, and reflected in weak U.S. GDP growth through the second quarter of this year,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “I expect the Texas Index to resume its upward trajectory as data comes in for the second half of the year.”

TX Index 0713

Click here for a PDF version of the Texas Economic Activity Index: TexasIndex_0713

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