Yearly Archives: 2014

2014Q3 GDP, Federal Reserve Policy Announcement, October UI Claims

The End of the World Is Over, Solid Data Trumps Market Jitters Real Gross Domestic Product increased at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in 2014Q3. The Federal Reserve ends balance sheet expansion, another step in the pivot. Initial Claims for … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Financial markets had a calmer week this week, following the equity market swoon into mid-October. Equity prices trended higher and bond yields followed, though the yield on 10-Year Treasury bonds is still quite low at 2.24 percent as of Friday … Continue reading

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September Consumer Prices, Existing Home Sales

Inflation Low as Oil Prices Fall, Home Sales Best in a Year The September Consumer Price Index increased by 0.1 percent, boosted by food prices. The September Core CPI also gained 0.1 percent, and was up 1.7 percent over the … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

October is often an “interesting” month for financial markets. No exception this year. At week’s end, global equity prices appear to have settled after a major slide. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds dipped below 2.0 percent on Wednesday and … Continue reading

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September Retail Sales, Producer Prices, August Inventories

Soft Sales Data Adds Momentum to De-Risking, Stocks Sell-Off, Bond Yields Fall September Retail Sales decreased by 0.3 percent, adding to de-risking momentum in financial markets. Ex-auto Retail Sales decreased by 0.2 percent. Most categories were down. Gasoline prices dropped. … Continue reading

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October 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Coupling, Decoupling, Reverberations and Over-Steer Increased awareness of downside risk has shaken financial markets since mid-September. The S&P 500 Index has declined nearly 7 percent from its September 18 peak at 2011 to October 14 at 1882. Likewise, Treasury bond … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

We had a light economic data calendar this week, but financial markets were very much in the news. Dominating the economic news was the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes from their meeting of September 16/17. In the … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

We had plenty of data to digest this week, most of which was positive. Even though some metrics declined, the dips were generally from very strong levels and not indicative of an enduring downshift in economic activity. Next week’s calendar … Continue reading

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September U.S. Employment, ISM Non-MF, August International Trade

Solid Economic Data Supports Stabilizing Stock Market, Decoupling, Fedspeak The September Payroll Employment Survey showed a gain of 248,000 jobs. July and August revised up. The Unemployment Rate for September dropped to 5.9 percent. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for September … Continue reading

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September ADP Employment, ISM-MF Index, August Construction Spending

Solid Q3 Data Keeps the Fed on Track for Policy Pivot The September ADP Employment Report showed a solid gain of 213,000 private-sector jobs. The ISM-Manufacturing Index for September fell to a still-positive 56.6, indicating improving conditions. Total Construction Spending … Continue reading

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