Comerica Bank’s Arizona Index Shows Strong Gain

Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index grew in December, increasing 1.7 percentage points to a level of 104.0. December’s index reading is 27 points, or 36 percent, above the index cyclical low of 76.7. The index averaged 99.9 points for all of 2014, four and one-half points above the average for full-year 2013. November’s index reading was 102.3.

“Our Arizona Economic Activity Index increased again in December, for the seventh consecutive month. Moreover, the last two monthly increases in our Arizona Index have been very broad-based, with all eight components of the index improving. Job creation in Arizona remains about on par with the overall U.S. economy, which is unusually subdued at this point in the business cycle. The residential real estate market in Arizona, which historically has been a driver of above-average job growth for the state, has improved only slowly,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “According to the latest Case-Shiller House Price Index, Phoenix house prices were up only 2.4 percent for the year ending in December. We expect to see stronger house price growth for Arizona in 2015.”

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For a PDF version of the Arizona Economic Activity Index click here: ArizonaIndex_0215.

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