Comerica Bank’s Texas Steps down for Second Month

Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index eased again in December, decreasing 0.2 percentage points to a level of 107.4. December’s reading is 35 points, or 48 percent, above the index cyclical low of 72.6. The index averaged 105.1 points for all of 2014, four and nine-tenths points above the average for full-year 2013. November’s index reading was 107.6.

“Our Texas Economic Activity Index declined slightly in December, following a small decline in November. The recent dip in the series clearly breaks the string of seven consecutive monthly gains beginning in April 2014. This dip in the Texas Index is consistent with the decline in crude oil and natural gas prices seen over the second half of last year and into early 2015. The drop in oil and gas prices has resulted in a significant reduction in planned expenditures for oil field development worldwide this year. Texas will share in that reduction in activity, and so we expect to see more evidence of the economic drag on Texas from lower oil prices in the months ahead,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Beyond the direct drag on oil field activity, we also expect to see more evidence of the indirect drag from lower oil prices on the rest of the Texas economy through 2015.”

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For a PDF version of the Texas Economic Activity Index click here: TexasIndex_0215.

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