Comerica Bank’s Texas Index Continues Decline on Oil

Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index eased again in March, decreasing 3.4 percentage points to a level of 101.1. March’s reading is 29 points, or 39 percent, above the index cyclical low of 72.6. The index averaged 105.1 points for all of 2014, four and four-fifths points above the average for full-year 2013. February’s index reading was 104.6.

“The Texas economy has lost momentum due to the reset in oil prices. Our Texas Economic Activity Index has declined for five consecutive months, beginning in November of last year. We expect to see more declines over the coming months as consolidation in the state’s energy sector continues. Six out of eight index components declined in March. The exception was house prices, supported by the strong North Texas market,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Recent firming of crude oil prices to the $55-$60 range is a good sign. We expect drilling rig counts to level out by mid-summer after falling by almost 60 percent, and that will help to establish a floor for the energy sector.”

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For a PDF version of the Texas Economic Activity Index click here: TexasIndex_0515.

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