Monthly Archives: October 2015

Comerica Economic Weekly

The Federal Reserve appears to be pivoting away from its repeatedly expressed intention to raise the fed funds rate this year. Labor data remains positive. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 7,000 for the week ending October 10, to … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 16-17 meeting dominated U.S. economic releases this week. The minutes show an active discussion filled with concerns over inflation and international issues, including the health of the Chinese economy. Importantly, the … Continue reading

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October 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Time does not cause recessions, but time does allow imbalances to accumulate that will eventually drag us back into recession. We are entering the 76th month of expansion, counting from July 2009. The last four expansions, including the current one, … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s California Index Sees First Decline Since March

Comerica Bank’s California Economic Activity Index declined in July, decreasing 0.3 percentage points to a level of 120.9. July’s reading is 37 points, or 44 percent, above the index cyclical low of 84.0. The index averaged 113.7 points for all … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

The drama continues as weaker-than-expected employment data for September challenge the Federal Reserve’s new-found conviction to raise interest rates this year. Yesterday, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams joined a chorus of FOMC officials in saying that he … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Michigan Index Still Strong on Autos

Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index grew in July, increasing 0.8 percentage points to reach a level of 127.4. July’s reading is 53 points, or 72 percent, above the index cyclical low of 74.0. The index averaged 117.4 points for … Continue reading

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September U.S. Employment

Disappointing Jobs Report Adds to Fed Uncertainty September Payroll Employment increased by a weaker-than-expected 142,000 jobs. August and July payroll levels were revised down by a total of 59,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate for September stayed at 5.1 percent. Average … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Texas Index Continues to See Lighter Declines

Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index eased in July, decreasing 0.3 percentage points to a level of 95.8. July’s reading is 23 points, or 31 percent, above the index cyclical low of 72.9. The index averaged 105.1 points for all … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Florida Index Still Strong on Construction and Tourism

Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index increased in July, growing 0.4 percentage points to a level of 138.4. July’s index reading is 60 points, or 77 percent, above the index cyclical low of 78.1. The index averaged 117.6 in 2014, … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Arizona Index Returns to Gains

Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index grew in July, increasing 0.2 percentage points to a level of 106.8. July’s index reading is 30 points, or 39 percent, above the index cyclical low of 76.9. The index averaged 99.7 points for … Continue reading

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