Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index declined slightly in July by 0.3 percentage points to a level of 154.8. July’s index reading is 77 points, or 98 percent, above the index cyclical low of 78.1. The index averaged 138.2 in 2015, twenty and seven-tenths points above the average for all of 2014. June’s index reading was 155.1.
“Our Florida Economic Activity Index flattened out this summer, with July showing the first dip in the index since last March. Prior to March, our Florida Index had enjoyed 23 consecutive monthly increases. A noticeable increase in unemployment insurance claims for the state this summer was the contributing factor in the July dip in the headline index. The UI claims data is seasonally adjusted, so seasonality should not be an issue. Instead, it looks like there has been some normalization in UI claims after exceptionally low levels in April and May. Other Florida indicators remain positive. Monthly job growth trended up this summer. Florida payroll employment in July was up 3.2 percent over the previous 12 months, well above the U.S. average growth rate of 1.7 percent for the same period,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Overall real estate conditions are good. According to the Case-Shiller data, house prices in Tampa and Miami were both up by 0.2 percent in July.”
For a PDF version of the Florida Economic Activity Index click here: FloridaIndex_0916.