Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index declined 0.4 percentage points in July to a level of 129.4. July’s reading is 55 points, or 75 percent, above the index cyclical low of 74.1. The index averaged 123.6 points for all of 2015, five and four-fifths points above the index average for 2014. June’s index reading was 129.8.
“Our Michigan Economic Activity Index eased in July after increasing in June. We have seen an overall upward trend in the index, with a back-and-forth monthly pattern since late 2015. Job growth in Michigan is looking choppy. State payroll employment was up by 2.4 percent in July over the previous 12 months, but the month-to-month pattern has been jarred by net job losses in May and August. Ford Motor Company announced that they will move all small car production to Mexico over the next two-to-three years. They will use Michigan capacity for higher margin vehicles. Over time, we expect to see an overall decline in auto production from Michigan,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Manufacturing employment in Michigan has levelled out this year. We look for growth in the service sector to sustain the state’s economic expansion through the remainder of this year.”
For a PDF version of the Michigan Economic Activity Index click here: Michigan_0916.