Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index gained 0.2 percentage points in August to a level of 110.5. August’s index reading is 34 points, or 44 percent, above the index cyclical low of 77.0. The index averaged 106.9 points for all of 2015, seven and one-fifth points above the average for 2014. July’s index reading was 110.3.
“The Comerica Bank Arizona Economic Activity Index increased in August, its third consecutive monthly increase after stalling through last spring. Four index components improved in August, including nonfarm payrolls, housing starts, house prices and state sales tax revenue. State exports, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) and enplanements eased for the month, while hotel occupancy was unchanged. The gainers for August remind us of previous incarnations of the state economy, when strong real estate markets drove above-average growth for the state. However, recent job growth has been inconsistent and the unemployment rate has fluctuated between 5.5 and 6.0 percent, well above previous cyclical lows,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “We expect to see ongoing moderate growth for the Arizona economy through early next year.
For a PDF version of the Arizona Economic Activity Index click here: ArizonaIndex_1016.