A key challenge in describing and forecasting the current Michigan economy is how to make comparisons relative to pre-recession performance. The reason for the difficulty is that Michigan did not “just” have to endure the Great Recession of 2007/08. The recession in Michigan started in the summer of 2002 and lingered through 2009. With the pace of job growth currently levelling off, it appears that Michigan has “recovered” from the Great Recession, but total employment remains about 360,000 jobs shy of the April 2000 peak. With the cooldown in job growth visible in 2016, the state has entered a post-recovery phase. The auto industry has restructured and national auto sales are cresting in the vicinity of an 18 million unit annual rate. Going forward it looks like both short-term and long-term forces will keep growth in check for Michigan. In the short-term the state’s key auto industry is looking at stable-to-declining sales over the next few years. Also, both Ford and GM are moving small car production out of Michigan. GM has just announced 840 lay-offs at the Lansing Grand River plant in response to the expected cooler trend in sales. Over the long-term, Michigan’s demographics are a fundamental constraint to growth. By 2005, Michigan’s population growth had slowed to zero. Recent estimates show state population for 2015Q2 to be about 134,000 below the peak from 2004Q3. Since 2000, when job growth began sliding, net migration for Michigan has been persistently negative. We expect the negative trend in net migration to continue as retirees move south and job growth eases with a maturing auto industry cycle.
For a PDF version of the complete Michigan Economic Outlook, click here: MI Outlook 112016.