Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index increased by 0.9 percentage points in September to a level of 155.1. September’s index reading is 77 points, or 99 percent, above the index cyclical low of 78.1. The index averaged 138.2 in 2015, twenty and seven-tenths points above the average for all of 2014. August’s index reading was 154.2.
“The Comerica Bank Florida Economic Activity Index improved in September after easing in August. Through the summer months, the Florida Index essentially moved sideways, showing a brief stall in Florida’s economic expansion. We expect that pattern to break as the Index improves through year-end, consistent with ongoing momentum in the Florida economy. In September, seven out of eight index components were positive, including nonfarm employment, state exports, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), house prices, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy and enplanements. The state will face some pressure from international tourism due to the stronger dollar, but domestic tourism will be supported by the strengthening U.S. economy,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Miami’s condo market is still correcting after overheating in 2015. A strong pipeline of new supply will keep prices subdued through 2017. However, a fundamentally strong Florida economy will eventually allow the Miami condo market to reset.”
For a PDF version of the Florida Economic Activity Index click here: floridaindex_1116.