Comerica Bank’s Texas Index Sees Another Month of Gains

Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index grew by 0.7 percentage points in November to a level of 91.6. November’s index reading is 19 points, or 26 percent, above the index cyclical low of 72.8. The index averaged 97.5 points for all of 2015, seven and three-fifths points below the average for full-year 2014. October’s index reading was 90.9.

“The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index increased for the third consecutive month in November, showing that the state’s economy is turning the corner after the dramatic slowdown in oil field activity that began in late 2014. Seven out of eight index components were positive in November, including nonfarm payrolls, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, rig count, home prices and hotel occupancy. Only state sales tax revenue eased. Job growth in Texas slowed from well above the national average in 2014, to near the national average through 2016. The most recent data shows a net of essentially zero new jobs for Texas in December 2016, which is the third weakest month for job growth in recent history. March 2015 and March 2016 both saw net job losses. However, we expect the state to bounce back from the weak December jobs report and show ongoing positive job creation through 2017,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “The drilling rig count improved through late 2016, indicative of more economic activity in oil-intensive areas.”

For a PDF version of the Texas Economic Activity Index click here: Texas_Index_0117.

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