Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. economic data at mid-August was favorable. July housing starts increased by a stronger-than-expected 15.7 percent. Existing home sales for July gained 2.4 percent, to a 5.15 million unit annual rate. The Leading Economic Index increased by 0.9 percent in July. The Consumer Price Index was up a tame 0.1 percent.

Monetary policy was front and center this week as both the minutes from the July 29/30 FOMC meeting were released and central bankers from around the world converged in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Federal Reserve’s annual retreat.

The minutes from the July FOMC meeting provide a little more clarity into the Fed’s collective approach to the unwind of extraordinary monetary policy, but some details are still murky. Last spring, FOMC chairwoman Janet Yellen promised that the Fed would release a new set of “exit principles” this year. That will help.

Reported in the minutes, the FOMC believes that they should decrease the size of their balance sheet gradually and predictably to the smallest level consistent with the efficient implementation of monetary policy. The goal is to have a portfolio that consists primarily of Treasury securities. No details of an unwinding strategy or timing were discussed. Unwinding could come passively as assets mature, or it could come actively with sales, or both.

Fed watchers were busy today scouring Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole for clues about the timing of interest rate lift-off. While still being purposefully vague, Yellen did open the door to earlier interest rate lift-off, if the data supported it. She said, “if progress in the labor market continues to be more rapid than anticipated…or if inflation moves up more rapidly than anticipated…then increases in the federal funds target could come sooner than the Committee currently expects and could be more rapid thereafter.”

To convert that into a schedule you have to make four assumptions: (1) what the FOMC’s current expectation of data is, (2) what the actual data will be, (3) what the FOMC’s schedule for interest rate lift-off would be absent better-than-expected data, and (4) how much they might move the schedule up. For now we are sticking with our call for interest rate lift-off next June.

For a PDF version of the Comerica Economic Weekly, including forecast tables and the variables calendar, click here: CMAEconWeekly 08-22-14.

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Phoenix Economy Shows Signs of Moderate Growth in 2014

Phoenix year-over-year employment growth is slowing down. Area employment grew 2.8 percent in 2013, but is expected to increase by only 1.8 percent this year. The outlook for Phoenix area employment remains positive heading into 2015 as the effects of the federal spending sequestration on defense-related industries continue to fade. Also, as the overall U.S. economy continues to recover, spillover into regional tourism and retirement related industries will be a boost for the Phoenix economy.

The housing market is a major accelerator of economic growth for the region. Housing inventory is beginning to accumulate while institutional buyers see less opportunity for a good deal. Single-family housing starts declined 8.6 percent in June compared to June 2013, indicating a reluctance amongst builders to get too far in front of demand. The decrease in demand from institutional buyers, along with the increased inventory is helping Phoenix area home prices to moderate. According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Phoenix area home prices slowed from 9.6 percent year-over-year growth in April to 8.1 percent in May. Sustained income growth along with loosening of credit standards and relatively low mortgage rates will strengthen the housing recovery in the region and ease the transition to a more traditional home-buyer-based demand.

The Greater Phoenix Economic Council notched a win in July with the World Trade Organization ruling opposing tariffs on Chinese-manufactured solar panels. This counters the International Trade Commissions 2012 imposition of tariffs on photovoltaic cells and modules manufactured in China. GPEC opposed the 2012 tariffs due to the negative impact on Phoenix’s growing solar industry. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, Arizona houses more than 330 solar companies with an associated 8,500 employees. GPEC is waiting to see whether the U.S. policy response will align with the new WTO ruling.

Phoenix 2014Q2

Click here for the complete Phoenix MSA Regional Economic Update: Phoenix 2014Q2.

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Miami Economy Continues to Strengthen

The Miami MSA labor market kept trucking along, building momentum in the first half of 2014. Miami added around 40,000 payroll jobs in the first two quarters of this year. We expect area employment to continue improving for the remainder of the year, growing by 3.0 percent for the full year 2014. This will outpace overall U.S. payroll growth, which is expected to increase by 1.8 percent. Labor force growth picked up pace as well in the first half of this year, following three negative quarters in 2013. The increased labor force participation led to an unchanged unemployment rate at 6.3 percent in 2014Q2. Labor markets are expected to tighten this year, driving the unemployment rate down to 5.8 percent by year-end.

Miami housing data has been mixed in the first half of 2014. Housing starts showed stronger growth for single-family homes, while multifamily housing starts recorded its second consecutive quarterly decline in Q2. Demand within single-family housing markets remains strong. The Miami Association of Realtors reported that single-family home sales grew 9.5 percent from a year ago in June. The improvement in single-family home sales is encouraging homeowners to put their homes on the market. This in turn is increasing the inventory of existing homes and helping to moderate home price growth in the region, down to 11.1 percent from a year ago in 2014Q2. Improving mortgage credit availability and relatively low mortgage rates are a positive for area housing markets headed into the second half of 2014.

Consumer spending continues to improve in the Miami area. According to the Florida Department of Revenue, gross sales for Miami-Dade County increased 7.0 percent from a year ago in June. The improving overall U.S. economy and stronger tourism will boost spending at Miami retailers. Sustained income growth, which is expected to increase by 5.0 percent in 2014, will also support ongoing gains in consumer activity this year.

Miami 2014Q2

Click here for the complete Miami MSA Regional Economic Update: Miami 2014Q2.

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San Antonio Maintains Strong Growth

San Antonio’s economic growth remains strong in the aftermath of booming Eagle Ford Shale drilling activity. According to EOG Resources Inc., the estimated Eagle Ford oil reserve potential increased by 250 percent since the discovery in 2010 (including a recent 45 percent increase), implying more economic opportunities for the region. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas production in the Eagle Ford formation will increase to 6,590 million cubic feet/day in September of this year, up by 20 percent year-over-year compared to the last September. In fact, total liquid petroleum production has quadrupled in the past three years in the region boosting the local economy.

San Antonio added a net of 14,100 jobs in the first half of 2014 ending in June, compared to 11,200 jobs in the same period last year. Consequently, unemployment declined by 1.3 percent to 4.8 percent in the second quarter of 2014 from 2013Q2. We expect job growth to be around 2.5 percent year-over-year through 2014. Most of the job growth is expected to be in construction, manufacturing, professional services, hospitality, and biotechnology/biomedical sciences. Consistent with the solid job growth, personal income in the area is growing in line with the long-term average of about 6.0 percent.

The housing market in the region is tightening up and home prices are growing steadily. Home prices grew 4.4 percent year-over-year in 2014Q1, the strongest since 2007. Housing starts, especially multifamily, have surged since the beginning of 2014. Strong home builders’ confidence and solid residential real estate demand has helped enhance residential construction in the area. According to the San Antonio Housing Authority, Phase III construction of $31 million worth of multifamily apartment buildings in San Juan will erect 252 residential units by the end of 2014, boosting community connectivity and economic activity in the area.

San Antonio 2014Q2

Click here for the complete San Antonio MSA Regional Economic Update: SanAntonio 2014Q2.

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North Texas Still Hot, Still Cool, Too

Job growth continues to be very strong in North Texas. Over the year ending in July, payroll employment in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area increased by 3.5 percent, widening the gap with the U.S. average at 1.8 percent. This robust rate of job growth is on par with the previous cyclical high from early 2006. A result of strong job growth is a rapidly falling unemployment rate, now forecast to be at 4.0 percent by the end of 2015. While the North Texas economy has benefitted from the renaissance in the U.S. petroleum industry, it also continues to diversify, adding significant new non-energy-related industries and employment. This will help to buffer the drag from an eventual and inevitable down cycle in the energy sector.

A key challenge in managing rapid economic expansion is the development of infrastructure and amenities to ensure that quality of life improves along with the gains in employment. To that end, Fort Worth looks like it will be getting a new 14,000 seat $450 million multipurpose arena and sports facility. The proposed new area would be located in Fort Worth’s Cultural District. This will no doubt help North Texas keep its cool. Forbes has ranked the Dallas-Fort Worth- as the 10th “coolest” city in the U.S. based on recreation, entertainment, foodie culture, age of residents, diversity and population growth. We already knew that North Texas is cool.

North Texas is adding industrial floor space. According to CBRE, the area has 18.5 million square feet of new warehouse and distribution space under development. In the second quarter 2.4 million square feet of industrial space was absorbed while 2 million square feet of new space was added, bringing the vacancy rate for industrial space down to a tight 6.3 percent. The Wade Park mixed-use project in Frisco keeps getting bigger. The now 175-acre plan includes office space, a grocery store, entertainment venues, a hotel, and single- and multifamily housing.

North Texas 2014Q2

Click here for the complete North Texas MSA Regional Economic Update: NorthTexas 2014Q2.

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Houston Works to Keep Up With Itself

Houston continues to expand at a strong rate. For the year ending in June, payroll employment was up by 3.2 percent, or slightly more than 90,000 jobs. Still, it is fair to say that the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metropolitan area is not growing as consistently fast in 2014 as it did at the end of 2012 and into early 2013. Strong job growth has brought Houston’s unemployment rate down to 5.0 percent as of June, and we expect it to continue to trend lower, dipping below 3.5 percent by the end of 2015. A key challenge in forecasting Houston’s unemployment rate (and other fast-growing Texas regions) is the balance between job growth and in-migration. We assume that job growth moderates in 2015, consistent with a stable oil price forecast. We also assume that in-migration remains strong, near recent highs, in the neighborhood of 80,000 people per year. Even with moderating job gains and still-strong in-migration, The Houston labor market will tighten up significantly over the next year and could ultimately be a constraint to future growth. Stronger-than-expected in-migration would relieve some of the scarcity of available workers and growing wage pressures.

Strong population growth is contributing to a residential building boom in the Houston area. The Woodlands, the huge 28,000 acre master-planned community is almost sold out of its 33,210 lots. A smaller, 2,000 acre community is in the works 13 miles north of the Woodlands, expecting to add more than 4,600 lots. Tight residential housing markets are leading to strong house price gains in the Houston area. According to Trulia, the national average asking price for houses was up 7.8 percent in July over the previous 12 months, while Houston was up 10.4 percent. Trulia said that Houston house price growth ranked 24th out of the top 100 metro area nationally. Despite the rapid pace of building, housing inventory in Houston is very tight. ZipRealty says that Houston is the fourth fastest-moving housing market in the U.S. Office space is tight, too.

Houston 2014Q2

Click here for the complete Houston MSA Regional Economic Update: Houston 2014Q2.

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Austin’s Economy Remains Strong

Year-over-year job growth in Austin remains well above the national average after peaking in June 2013. Payroll jobs grew by 12,600 in the first half of 2014 compared to 18,100 in the same period last year. Despite the softer job growth, Austin’s economy continues to be strong, mainly fueled by tech-and-services sector growth. Consequently, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent by June this year, about 1.2 percent down from last June. We expect job growth to be around 3.5 percent year-over-year through 2014 as the region still maintains a strong pro-business environment.

Austin saw a strong rebound in housing starts in the second quarter of 2014 with a surge in both single and multifamily housing starts. Strong in-migration and consequent population growth are keeping residential real estate markets tight. We expect housing starts to moderate in the next half of 2014 before rebounding again in 2015. Home price appreciation started moderating in 2014Q1 after peaking in the second half of last year. Home prices are expected to grow above the national average in the remainder of 2014 and 2015 as residential housing demand continues to pick up.

We expect continued job growth in forthcoming months fueled by expanding businesses and entrepreneurial activity in the area. Charles Schwab from San Francisco is planning to add over 800 jobs in Austin over the next several years. Austin approved a $3.3 million tax incentive to the company. Expanding grocery stores like Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods Market, and Sprouts are not only adding new jobs to the region’s economy, but also providing diversified products to customers. Despite the strong regional economy, poverty in the region remains a major challenge for economic development. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 19.4 percent of the population lives in poverty in the area compared to 17.4 percent in the entire state of Texas.

Austin 2014Q2

Click here for the complete Austin MSA Regional Economic Update: Austin 2014Q2.

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Detroit Adds Jobs in Q2

It sounds like faint praise, but for the Detroit metro any net job growth is good news. Payroll employment ticked up in May and June after stagnating in the second half of 2013, and declining in early 2014. Despite the job gains, the metro area unemployment rate increased to 8.4 percent after climbing in May as well. It would be premature to say that the second quarter net job gains are indicative of an upside breakout from Detroit’s stalled jobs machine. Still, the moderate net gains are a good sign that will hopefully be extended. We are forecasting weak, but improved job growth for the Detroit metro area through 2015. This will bring the unemployment rate down gradually over the year ahead, finishing 2015 at a still-elevated 7.2 percent.

The Southeast Michigan Purchasing Managers Index for July increased strongly to a very solid 60.0 percent, indicating rapidly improving economic conditions for area manufacturers. The employment sub-index was also strong. However, it is noteworthy that the SE Michigan employment sub-index was in positive territory even as overall payroll employment was flat-to-declining.

The trial to determine the timing of the City of Detroit’s potential exit from bankruptcy was set to begin on August 21, as of our publication cut-off. Many creditors have already indicated their approval of the city’s plan to significantly reduce the $18 billion of debt, but the bankruptcy judge must rule that the plan is fair and feasible for it to be implemented. Bond insurers are expected to push back in the trial, as they stand to lose significantly if Detroit is allowed to default. The conclusion of the trial will diminish the pall of uncertainty enveloping Detroit and hopefully mark the passage into a new era of financial sustainability for the city.

Anecdotal reports suggest that boat sales are improving statewide. Boat purchases are usually highly discretionary, so they are a bellwether for improving consumer confidence at the regional level.

Detroit 2014Q2

Click here for the complete Detroit MSA Regional Economic Update: Detroit 2014Q2.

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Central West Michigan’s Economy Continues to Improve

The Central West Michigan (CWM) region, home to auto, manufacturing, and office furniture industries, grew better than expected, especially in the second quarter of 2014. Payroll jobs were up by 2.7 percent year-over-year, adding a net of 12,000 jobs in the first half of the year compared to 9,000 jobs in the same period last year. Consequently, the region’s unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent ending in 2014Q2, down by 1.3 percent from the same period last year. The decline in unemployment came from a modest improvement in household employment. On the upside, the labor force also grew better than expected in 2014Q2, good news for the economy. However, a subdued net migration outlook and consequent low population growth remains one of the major concerns for the region going forward.

The housing market is picking up in the region with home prices growing above 5 percent year-over-year for three consecutive quarters from 2013Q3 to 2014Q1. We expect home prices to grow moderately below the national average for the remainder of the year. Total housing starts are up significantly in the second quarter fueled by a surge in both single and multifamily housing starts. As home builders’ confidence surged for the third consecutive month in August, we expect continued improvement in the housing market across the region.

Nationwide, auto sales peaked at 16.9 million units in June after a chilling winter. Motor vehicle assemblies were up 27 percent year-to-year in July, to a 13.2 million unit annual rate, indicating revitalized assembly lines across the nation. The U.S. office equipment manufacturing outlook is improving. We expect office furniture sales to increase over 2015, consistent with expected gains in business confidence and business investment.

CWMI 2014Q2

Click here for the complete Central West Michigan Regional Economic Update: CentralWestMI 2014Q2.

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Southern California Maintains Moderate Momentum

Southern California labor markets look positive this year. While gains in regional employment have moderated from the robust growth seen in early 2013, employment growth has remained steadily above the U.S. average in 2014. Area employment is expected to grow around 2.3 percent this year, while overall U.S. employment is expected to increase by 1.8 percent. The overall improvement in Southern California labor markets are expected to support gains in income growth at 5.1 percent for 2014.

Demand for single-family homes in the region is being dampened by rising home prices. May home prices for the L.A. and San Diego metropolitan areas remained 20.0 percent below their pre-recession peaks, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. However, the robust growth in home prices seen over the last year in the Southern California region is leading to a decline in housing affordability. Area home sales dipped 12.4 percent from a year ago in July, according to CoreLogic DataQuick. From the demand side, rapid home price appreciation and tight credit standards are tempering the pool of potential traditional home buyers. From the supply side, current home owners may be holding off putting their houses onto the market until home prices have recovered further. As the overall economy improves, supporting sustained income growth, we expect Southern California housing markets to normalize.

California is on its way to quadrupling its annual allotment to subsidize tax credits for the film industry. The State Senate Appropriations Committee increased the state tax credit for film and TV productions to $400 million annually. The bill contains a 20 percent credit of qualified expenditures up to $100 million for motion pictures and TV shows. Proposed funding in Assembly Bill 1839 would begin in fiscal year 2015-2016. The amended bill has two more rounds of voting, first by the State Assembly, followed by the Senate.

Southern CA 2014Q2

Click here for the complete Southern California Regional Economic Update: SouthernCA 2014Q2.

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