Author Archives: Comerica Economics

FOMC Policy Announcement

FOMC Stays the Course, QE3 Sails On, Other News Mixed QE3 will continue as originally defined with a total of $85 billion of asset purchases per month. The FOMC is prepared to change the pace of purchases as conditions change. … Continue reading

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Michigan Index Gains in February

Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in February, up 0.1 points to a level of 117.8. Continue reading

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March Income and Spending

Income and spending data for March show modest gains after adjusting for inflation. But for the first quarter as a whole, real disposable personal income (after inflation and taxes) showed the biggest quarterly drop since the Great Recession. Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

April showers have been raining on U.S. economic data; it looks a bit soggy as we close out the month. GDP increased at a weaker-than-expected 2.5 percent annualized rate in the first quarter as weather played an outsized role. Colder … Continue reading

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California Index Up in February

Comerica Bank’s California Economic Activity Index climbed in February, gaining 3.3 points to a level of 104.1. February’s reading is 31 points, or 43 percent, above the index cyclical low of 72.7. The index averaged a revised 101 points for … Continue reading

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Texas Index Dips in February

Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index fell slightly in February, declining 0.2 percentage points to a level of 105.5. The February reading is 34 points, or 48 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.5. The index averaged 102 points … Continue reading

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April Consumer Sentiment, March Retail Sales, PPI, Feb. Biz Inventories

Q1 Expected to Show Moderate to Strong Expansion, False Positives, False Negatives   University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment sank in April to 72.3 after three months of gains. March Retail Sales decreased by 0.4 percent as gasoline prices dropped and … Continue reading

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The Inventory Swing and the Fiscal Cliff Increase Odds of Mid‐Year Lull

Real GDP growth for the recently completed first quarter of 2013 appears likely to exceed earlier expectations when the first estimate is released on April 26. Despite the drag from fiscal tightening, real GDP growth is set to register in … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. economic data at the close of the first quarter was mixed, consistent with the view that economic momentum continued through the quarter, but conditions remain far from normal in part due to ongoing uncertainty about fiscal tightening and other … Continue reading

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February Income and Spending

Income Still Distorted by Tax Changes, Spending Solid U.S. Personal Income increased by 1.1 percent in February after declining by 3.7 percent in January. Real Disposable Personal Income gained 0.7 percent after declining by 4.0 percent in January. Real Personal … Continue reading

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