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Category Archives: Daily
April U.S. Employment and ISM Non‐Manufacturing, March Intl. Trade
Bullet Dodged as Payrolls Gain, Upward Revisions Help The April Payroll Employment Survey showed a moderate gain of 165,000 jobs, with positive revisions. The Unemployment Rate for February decreased to 7.5 percent, as the household survey gained 293K. Average Weekly … Continue reading
FOMC Policy Announcement
FOMC Stays the Course, QE3 Sails On, Other News Mixed QE3 will continue as originally defined with a total of $85 billion of asset purchases per month. The FOMC is prepared to change the pace of purchases as conditions change. … Continue reading
March Income and Spending
Income and spending data for March show modest gains after adjusting for inflation. But for the first quarter as a whole, real disposable personal income (after inflation and taxes) showed the biggest quarterly drop since the Great Recession. Continue reading
April Consumer Sentiment, March Retail Sales, PPI, Feb. Biz Inventories
Q1 Expected to Show Moderate to Strong Expansion, False Positives, False Negatives University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment sank in April to 72.3 after three months of gains. March Retail Sales decreased by 0.4 percent as gasoline prices dropped and … Continue reading
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February Income and Spending
Income Still Distorted by Tax Changes, Spending Solid U.S. Personal Income increased by 1.1 percent in February after declining by 3.7 percent in January. Real Disposable Personal Income gained 0.7 percent after declining by 4.0 percent in January. Real … Continue reading
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March Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence, Feb. New Home Sales, Jan. House Prices
Mixed Data Suggests Ongoing Momentum, but Also Ongoing Uncertainty March New Orders for Durable Goods gained 5.7 percent as aircraft orders rebounded. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in March to 59.7. New Home Sales for February fell … Continue reading
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January International Trade, February ADP, March UI Claims
Trade Gap Widens as Exports Cool, Labor Data Is Positive The U.S. International Trade Gap widened in January to -$44.4 billion as exports cooled. Private Nonfarm Employment increased by 198,000 jobs in February according to the ADP survey. Initial … Continue reading
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January Industrial Production, February Consumer Sentiment, UI Claims
Mixed Data Consistent with Modest-to-Moderate Expansion in Q1 Industrial Production for January decreased by 0.1 percent as motor vehicle output dipped. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment increased in early February to 76.3. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance fell by 24,000 … Continue reading
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January Retail Sales, NFIB Survey, December JOLTS
Consumers Off to a Sluggish Start for Q1, Taxes Matter January Retail Sales increased by just 0.1 percent as consumers adjusted to higher taxes. Ex-auto Retail Sales gained 0.2 percent as general merchandise stores gained 1.1 percent. The NFIB Business … Continue reading
December International Trade, Q4 Productivity, January UI Claims
Positive December Trade Data Expected to Erase Negative on Q4 GDP The U.S. International Trade gap narrowed more than expected in December to -$38.5 billion. Nonfarm Productivity declined at a 2.0 percent annual rate in Q4 due to nonrepeating … Continue reading
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