Category Archives: Daily

The Trump Presidency and the U.S. Economy

Expect Change, but Mind the Gap(s) Donald J. Trump won the presidential election with 290 electoral votes to Clinton’s 228. Trump received 47.3 percent of the popular vote to Clinton’s 47.8 percent. The House of Representatives remains in Republican control, … Continue reading

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October U.S. Employment, September International Trade

No Surprises Keeps the Fed on Track for a December 14 Rate Hike Payroll Employment increased by 161,000 jobs in October, dampened by Hurricane Matthew. The Unemployment Rate for October eased back to 4.9 percent. Average Hourly Earnings increased by … Continue reading

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October ISM Indexes, ADP Jobs, UI Claims, Central Banks

Fed Hints at December Rate Hike The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for October eased to a still-positive 54.8. The ISM Manufacturing Index for October increased to 51.9, showing more momentum. According to ADP, 147,000 private sector jobs were added in October. … Continue reading

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September Income and Spending, Chicago PMI

No Tricks in the Income and Spending Report, Just Treats U.S. Personal Income increased by 0.3 percent in September. After inflation and taxes, Real Disposable Income was unchanged for the second month in a row. Nominal Consumer Spending increased by … Continue reading

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2016Q3 GDP, Sept. Durable Goods Orders, Oct. UI Claims

Q3 GDP Bounces Back on Inventory Build and Exports Real Gross Domestic Product for 2016Q3 increased at a moderate 2.9 percent annual rate. New Orders for Durable Goods were essentially unchanged, dipping by 0.1 percent in September. Initial Claims for … Continue reading

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September Residential Construction

Starts Stop, Permits Perk Up September Housing Starts unexpectedly fell by 9.0 percent to a 1,047,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction gained 6.3 percent to a 1,225,000 unit pace in September. Housing starts unexpectedly fell by 9.0 … Continue reading

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September Consumer Prices, Industrial Production, October NAHB Survey

Higher Energy Prices Warm Up the CPI The September Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3 percent as energy prices climbed. The September Core CPI increased by 0.1 percent, and was up 2.2 percent over the previous 12 months. September Industrial … Continue reading

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September U.S. Employment

 Mildly Disappointing Data Will Quickly Lose Relevancy Payroll Employment increased by 156,000 jobs in September, continuing a slight downward trend. The Unemployment Rate for September ticked up to 5.0 percent. Average Hourly Earnings increased by a moderate 0.2 percent. Average … Continue reading

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September ISM Manufacturing, August Construction Spending

  Firmer Manufacturing Data, Maybe The ISM Manufacturing Index for September increased to an expansive 51.5 percent. Construction Spending decreased by 0.7 percent in August with broad-based declines. The ISM Manufacturing Index for September ticked back up above the break-even … Continue reading

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August New Home Sales

Sales Dip in August but Trend Looks Good New Home Sales decreased by 7.6 percent in August to a 609,000 unit annual rate. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey improved in September. The worst may be over in the oil patch. … Continue reading

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