Category Archives: Daily

March Retail Sales, Producer Prices, February Inventories

Headline Numbers Weak, But Details Mixed in Today’s Economic Data March Retail Sales declined by 0.3 percent, as auto sales fell. Ex-auto Retail Sales increased by 0.2 percent, supported by building materials. The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell … Continue reading

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March ISM Non-MF, February Trade and JOLTS

Trade Expected to Drag on Q1 GDP, Service Sector and Labor Data Positive The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March increased to 54.5 percent. The U.S. International Trade Gap widened in February to -$47.1 billion. The JOLTS Report for February showed … Continue reading

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March U.S. Employment

Another Solid Jobs Report. No Fooling! March Payroll Employment increased by a solid 215,000 jobs, just above expectations. The Unemployment Rate for March ticked up to 5.0 percent with strong recent gains in the labor force. Average Hourly Earnings increased … Continue reading

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March ADP Jobs, January Home Prices, Yellen Speech

Jobs Growth and House Prices Support U.S. Households, Yellen Dials Back Expectations The February ADP Employment Report showed a gain of 200,000 private-sector jobs. The January Case-Shiller U.S. National House Price Index was up 5.4 percent from a year earlier. … Continue reading

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February Income and Spending

Modest Income Growth Tempered by Declining Corporate Profits U.S. Personal Income increased by 0.2 percent in February, despite strong job growth. Real disposable income gained 0.3 percent for the month. Nominal Consumer Spending increased by just 0.1 percent in February … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Taking Auto Sales Out for a Test Drive Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that U.S. light vehicles sales bottomed out in the Great Recession in February 2009, at a 9.0 million unit sales rate. Auto sales have … Continue reading

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February Residential Construction, Consumer Prices, Industrial Production

Houses Started, Manufacturing Produced, Oil Up, Fed on Hold February Housing Starts increased by 5.2 percent to a 1,178,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction decreased by 3.1 percent to a 1,167,000 unit pace in February. The Consumer … Continue reading

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February Retail Sales, Producer Prices

Auto Sales Top Out as Energy Prices Bottom Out February Retail Sales declined by 0.1 percent, and January was revised down to -0.4 percent. Ex-auto Retail Sales also dipped by 0.1 percent as categories showed mixed results. The Producer Price … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Things Are (not so) Great Even before The Great Recession, things were getting really great. Economists had already coined the term “The Great Moderation” to describe the recent tendency of U.S. business cycles toward longer expansions. This is clearly evident … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Negative Interest Rates We had a timely question from a client today about negative interest rates. I hope that my answer may be beneficial for others as well. Q – Do you think the Fed will ever implement negative interest … Continue reading

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