Category Archives: Daily

From the Desk of Robert Dye

Things Are (not so) Great Even before The Great Recession, things were getting really great. Economists had already coined the term “The Great Moderation” to describe the recent tendency of U.S. business cycles toward longer expansions. This is clearly evident … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Negative Interest Rates We had a timely question from a client today about negative interest rates. I hope that my answer may be beneficial for others as well. Q – Do you think the Fed will ever implement negative interest … Continue reading

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February U.S. Employment, January Trade

Strong Jobs Data Confirms Economic Momentum February Payroll Employment increased by a strong 242,000 jobs, well above consensus expectations. The Unemployment Rate for February was unchanged at 4.9 percent. Average Hourly Earnings dropped by 0.1 percent. Average Weekly Hours dipped … Continue reading

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February ADP Jobs, Auto Sales

Jobs and Cars Signal Healthy Consumer Sector The February ADP Employment Report showed a gain of 214,000 private-sector jobs. February Auto Sales ticked down slightly to a 17.5 million unit rate. Our thesis for this year is that consumer spending … Continue reading

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February ISM Manufacturing, January Construction Spending

Merely Mortal Data for Super Tuesday The ISM Manufacturing Index for February increased to a barely contractionary 49.5 percent. Construction Spending increased by 1.5 percent in January as highway construction surged. The ISM Manufacturing Index for February increased to 49.5 … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Brexit Highlights Europe as a Source of Uncertainty in 2016 On June 23 the United Kingdom will vote on whether to stay in the European Union, or to leave. If the vote is to leave the EU, that does not … Continue reading

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January New and Existing Home Sales, December House Prices

Soft Home Sales in the West, but Conditions Look Good for Spring Sales Season New Home Sales for January sagged, down 9.2 percent to a 494,000 unit annual rate. Existing Home Sales in January were essentially unchanged, up 0.4 percent … Continue reading

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January Residential Construction, Producer Prices, Industrial Production

It’s Winter! Housing Snowed Out, Prices Up, Utility Output Up January Housing Starts decreased by 3.8 percent to a 1,099,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction ticked down by 0.2 percent to a 1,202,000 unit pace. The Producer … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

The solid gains in equity prices through mid-2015 are evaporating. Gold prices are up. Oil prices are down. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury B bond is down to 1.63 percent, within striking distance of the mid-2012 lows. Financial markets … Continue reading

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January U.S. Employment, December Trade

Payroll Gains Less Than Expected, But Other Labor Indicators Positive January Payroll Employment increased by a 151,000 jobs, below consensus expectations of 185,000. The Unemployment Rate for January declined to 4.9 percent. The U.S. International Trade Gap widened in December … Continue reading

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