Category Archives: Daily

March ADP Jobs, ISM Non-MF, FOMC Minutes

Ongoing Strong Job Gains and Discussion of a Shift in Fed Policy The March ADP Employment Report showed another strong gain, adding 263,000 private-sector jobs. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index eased to a still-positive 55.2 in March. The minutes of the … Continue reading

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February U.S. International Trade

Fears of Big Drag from Trade on Q1 GDP Diminished with New Data The Trade Gap narrowed by $4.6 billion in February, to -$43.6 billion. Exports increased marginally by $0.4 billion, with slightly stronger exports of goods. Imports fell by … Continue reading

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March ISM-MF Index, February Construction Spending, Fed Balance Sheet

 Good Data Accompanies Discussion of Fed’s Balance Sheet The ISM Manufacturing Index for March decreased to a still-positive 57.2, showing improving conditions. Construction spending increased by 0.8 percent in March, boosted by private multi-family projects. The ISM Manufacturing Index for … Continue reading

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February New and Existing Home Sales, March UI Claims

New Home Sales Strong in February New Home Sales increased by 6.1 percent to a 592,000 unit annual rate. Existing Home Sales fell by 3.7 percent in February to a 5,480,000 unit annual rate. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance gained … Continue reading

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Feb. Residential Construction, March UI Claims and Philly Fed, Jan. JOLTS

Grab Bag of Data Consistent with Ongoing Economic Momentum Housing Starts increased in February by 3.0 percent to a 1,288,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction decreased by 6.2 percent to a 1,213,000 unit pace in February. Initial … Continue reading

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Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

Fed Raises Short-Term Interest Rates 25 Basis Points As Expected The Federal Reserve raised the target range of the fed funds rate by 25 basis points. The new Dot Plot remains consistent with three 25 basis point rate hikes in … Continue reading

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Feb. Consumer Prices, Retail Sales, Jan. Biz. Inventories, March NAHB and NY Fed

Nothing in Today’s Data Stops the Fed from Announcing a Rate Hike This Afternoon The February Consumer Price Index increased by 0.1 percent. Core CPI increased by 0.2 percent, and was up 2.2 percent over the previous 12 months. Retail … Continue reading

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February PPI, Small Business Confidence

Data Consistent with Fed Rate Hike Expectations for Tomorrow The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased by 0.3 percent in February. Core Producer Prices also increased by 0.3 percent. The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index sustained its recent surge, … Continue reading

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February U.S. Employment

 Last Hurdle Cleared for March 15 Fed Rate Hike Payroll Employment increased by 235,000 jobs in February. The Unemployment Rate for February dipped to 4.7 percent. Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.2 percent for the month, the average workweek was … Continue reading

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February ADP Jobs, Q4 Productivity

Strong Job Gains Reinforce High Odds of March 15 Rate Hike The February ADP Employment Report showed a strong gain of 298,000 private-sector jobs for the month. Productivity increased in 2016Q4 at a 1.3 percent annualized rate. The ADP National … Continue reading

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