Category Archives: From the Desk of Robert Dye

The Trump Presidency and the U.S. Economy

Expect Change, but Mind the Gap(s) Donald J. Trump won the presidential election with 290 electoral votes to Clinton’s 228. Trump received 47.3 percent of the popular vote to Clinton’s 47.8 percent. The House of Representatives remains in Republican control, … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

This morning at the annual Federal Reserve retreat at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, FOMC Chairwoman Janet Yellen delivered a speech titled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present and Future.” The bulk of the speech was focused on possible tools … Continue reading

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Announcement: New Publications

Beginning today, Comerica’s Economics Department will be rolling out a new series of publications, a “State Economic Outlook” for each of our five markets. These new publications, quarterly in frequency, will provide analysis and economic outlook for Arizona, California, Florida, … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Taking Auto Sales Out for a Test Drive Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that U.S. light vehicles sales bottomed out in the Great Recession in February 2009, at a 9.0 million unit sales rate. Auto sales have … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Things Are (not so) Great Even before The Great Recession, things were getting really great. Economists had already coined the term “The Great Moderation” to describe the recent tendency of U.S. business cycles toward longer expansions. This is clearly evident … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Negative Interest Rates We had a timely question from a client today about negative interest rates. I hope that my answer may be beneficial for others as well. Q – Do you think the Fed will ever implement negative interest … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Brexit Highlights Europe as a Source of Uncertainty in 2016 On June 23 the United Kingdom will vote on whether to stay in the European Union, or to leave. If the vote is to leave the EU, that does not … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

The solid gains in equity prices through mid-2015 are evaporating. Gold prices are up. Oil prices are down. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury B bond is down to 1.63 percent, within striking distance of the mid-2012 lows. Financial markets … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Slushy Data Will Freeze the Fed this Winter Recent financial market volatility plus another leg down in oil prices, to near $30 per barrel for WTI, will make for an interesting discussion at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

This Thursday, at 2pm ET, 1pm CT, we expect to know the results of the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting over this Wednesday and Thursday. In her semi-annual testimony to Congress in July, Janet Yellen said most FOMC participants … Continue reading

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