Category Archives: From the Desk of Robert Dye

Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. data was mixed this week. Q1 GDP growth was tepid, but March new home sales were strong. 2017Q1 real GDP registered a sluggish 0.7 percent annualized growth rate, about as expected. Personal consumption expenditures increased at a very low … Continue reading

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2017Q1 GDP, March Employment Cost Index

First Quarter GDP was Weak, as Expected. We Look for Stronger Growth Later….if… Real Gross Domestic Product for 2017Q1 increased at a weak 0.7 percent annualized rate. Worker Compensation increased by 0.8 percent in March as labor markets tightened. The … Continue reading

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March Durable Goods, Advance Indicators, April UI Claims, Tax Reform

Lots of Moving Parts As Trump Administration Pushes Fiscal Agenda New Orders for Durable Goods increased by 0.7 percent in March, the third consecutive monthly gain. The Advance Estimate of International Trade in Goods showed a widening trade gap, dragging … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. data was mixed this week, consistent with our expectation of modest first quarter real GDP growth. We look for about 1.1 percent 2017Q1 real GDP growth when the data is released next Friday. Housing starts dropped by 6.8 percent … Continue reading

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March Leading Indicators, Philly Fed, April UI Claims

 Indicators Still Positive for U.S. Economy The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for March increased by 0.4 percent. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance gained 10,000 for the week ending April 15, to hit 244,000. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index … Continue reading

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March Residential Construction, Industrial Production

Starts Rebalance After February Bump Housing Starts decreased in March by 6.8 percent to a 1,215,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction increased by 3.6 percent to a 1,260,000 unit pace in March. Industrial Production increased by 0.5 … Continue reading

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Reshaping the Trump Bump and the Monetary Offset

The policy machinations of Washington D.C. will figure very large in the U.S. economy over the next year, both in terms of Trump Administration fiscal policy and the Yellen Fed monetary policy. Nearing the end of its first hundred days, … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It has been an active week for economic developments. U.S. economic data was generally positive this week, despite the miss on March payroll employment. We saw some discussion in the minutes of the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting that … Continue reading

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March U.S. Employment

Quirky Report Shows Weaker-than-Expected Payroll Gain Despite Other Strong Indicators Payroll Employment increased by only 98,000 jobs in March. The household survey surged by 472,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate for March fell to 4.5 percent. Average Hourly Earnings increased by … Continue reading

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March ADP Jobs, ISM Non-MF, FOMC Minutes

Ongoing Strong Job Gains and Discussion of a Shift in Fed Policy The March ADP Employment Report showed another strong gain, adding 263,000 private-sector jobs. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index eased to a still-positive 55.2 in March. The minutes of the … Continue reading

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