Category Archives: From the Desk of Robert Dye

Comerica Economic Weekly

We saw several important data releases this week and significant action and non-action by central banks. U.S. economic data for the week was generally softer than expected. However, data are still supportive of an increase in GDP growth in the … Continue reading

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May Industrial Production, June UI Claims, Regional Manufacturing, Builders

Production Stalls after April Surge Industrial Production was unchanged in May as vehicle assemblies declined. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance dipped by 8,000 for the week ending June 10, to hit 237,000. Industrial production for May was unchanged after surging … Continue reading

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Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

 Fed Raises Short-Term Interest Rates 25 Basis Points As Expected The Federal Reserve raised the target range of the fed funds rate by 25 basis points. The new Dot Plot remains consistent with three 25 basis point rate hikes in … Continue reading

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May Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index

Soft Pricing Contributes to Soft Spending in May May Retail Sales decreased by 0.3 percent, as gasoline prices fell. The Consumer Price Index fell by 0.1 percent in May, as the energy price index declined by 2.7 percent. The Producer … Continue reading

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An Important Summer is Shaping Up in Washington

They say “Sell in May, and go away.” However, if you do that this year you are likely to miss a lot. The upcoming June 13/14 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is shaping up to be eventful. Also, the Trump … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. data releases this week were capped by a weaker-then-expected payroll employment gain in May, according to the BLS. However, other labor market indicators were solid. May payrolls expanded by 138,000 according to the BLS. The pace of U.S. job … Continue reading

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May U.S. Employment

May Payrolls Up Just 138,000, Unemployment Rate Down to 4.3% Payroll Employment increased by 138,000 jobs in May, below expectations. The Unemployment Rate for May fell to 4.3 percent. Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.2 percent for the month; the … Continue reading

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May ADP Jobs, ISM MF Index, UI Claims, April Construction Spending

   Strong Private Sector Jobs Report Raises Expectations The May ADP Employment Report showed a strong 253,000 net gain in private sector jobs. The ISM Manufacturing Index inched up to a positive 54.9 in May. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance … Continue reading

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April Personal Income, May Consumer Confidence, March Home Prices

 Stronger Consumer Spending Will Lift Q2 GDP            U.S. Real Disposable Personal Income increased by 0.2 percent in April. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index increased by 0.2 percent in April. After inflation, Real Consumer Spending increased by 0.2 percent in … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It was a light week for U.S. data. April home sales were soft. Q1 GDP was revised up and the Fed minutes revealed more about balance sheet reduction. New home sales fell by 11.4 percent, to a 569,000 unit annual … Continue reading

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