Category Archives: General

March Residential Construction, Industrial Production

Starts Rebalance After February Bump Housing Starts decreased in March by 6.8 percent to a 1,215,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction increased by 3.6 percent to a 1,260,000 unit pace in March. Industrial Production increased by 0.5 … Continue reading

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Reshaping the Trump Bump and the Monetary Offset

The policy machinations of Washington D.C. will figure very large in the U.S. economy over the next year, both in terms of Trump Administration fiscal policy and the Yellen Fed monetary policy. Nearing the end of its first hundred days, … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It has been an active week for economic developments. U.S. economic data was generally positive this week, despite the miss on March payroll employment. We saw some discussion in the minutes of the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting that … Continue reading

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March U.S. Employment

Quirky Report Shows Weaker-than-Expected Payroll Gain Despite Other Strong Indicators Payroll Employment increased by only 98,000 jobs in March. The household survey surged by 472,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate for March fell to 4.5 percent. Average Hourly Earnings increased by … Continue reading

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March ADP Jobs, ISM Non-MF, FOMC Minutes

Ongoing Strong Job Gains and Discussion of a Shift in Fed Policy The March ADP Employment Report showed another strong gain, adding 263,000 private-sector jobs. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index eased to a still-positive 55.2 in March. The minutes of the … Continue reading

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February U.S. International Trade

Fears of Big Drag from Trade on Q1 GDP Diminished with New Data The Trade Gap narrowed by $4.6 billion in February, to -$43.6 billion. Exports increased marginally by $0.4 billion, with slightly stronger exports of goods. Imports fell by … Continue reading

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March ISM-MF Index, February Construction Spending, Fed Balance Sheet

 Good Data Accompanies Discussion of Fed’s Balance Sheet The ISM Manufacturing Index for March decreased to a still-positive 57.2, showing improving conditions. Construction spending increased by 0.8 percent in March, boosted by private multi-family projects. The ISM Manufacturing Index for … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Expectations for a fed funds rate hike at the upcoming May 2-3 Federal Open Market Committee meeting remain muted. According to the fed funds futures market, the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on May 3 is … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Florida Index Rises Again

Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index grew in January, up by 1.7 percentage points to a level of 163.8. January’s index reading is 86 points, or 110 percent, above the index cyclical low of 78.1. The index averaged 155.3 in … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Arizona Index Eases

Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index declined 0.2 percentage points in January to a level of 112.3. January’s index reading is 35 points, or 46 percent, above the index cyclical low of 77.0. The index averaged 110.3 points for all … Continue reading

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