Category Archives: General

From the Desk of Robert Dye

In its monetary policy statement this afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee made no changes to interest rate policy. The Fed did acknowledge that the U.S. economy has recently improved, after a weak first quarter.  Fed officials believe that U.S. … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Strong U.S. economic data are raising expectations for the remainder of the year after a weak Q1. So far this month, two nagging questions about the U.S. economy have been answered. The first nagging question was about the rate of … Continue reading

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June 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The mystery number known as Q1 real gross domestic product growth is currently set at -0.7 percent. That may not be its final resting place. On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its annual revision for the … Continue reading

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May Retail Sales, April Inventories, June UI Claims

Consumers Missing in Action Reappear in May May Retail Sales surged by 1.2 percent as auto sales increased by 2.0 percent. Ex-auto Retail Sales increased by a strong 1.0 percent. Business Inventories for April increased by a moderate 0.4 percent. … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Today we saw two more data points bolstering our view that labor markets bounced back from weaker hiring in March. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April showed an uptick in the rate of hiring, to a … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

280,000 was the number of net new payroll jobs created in the U.S. in May. Robust payroll job growth in May, following a solid April, put to rest fears of a jobs slowdown that appeared after a weak March jobs … Continue reading

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May U.S. Employment

Fear of a Job Slowdown Vanquished by Strong May Payroll Gain of 280,000 May Payroll Employment surged by 280,000, soft March numbers were revised up. The Unemployment Rate for May ticked up to 5.5 percent on a labor force rebound. … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Labor Markets and the Productivity Conundrum According to the folks at Merriam-Webster, a conundrum is a confusing or difficult problem. It is also the 193rd most popular word on Merriam-Webster.com. I suspect that its popularity is rising, especially amongst economists. … Continue reading

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May ADP Employment, Auto Sales, ISM MF and Non-MF, April Trade

U.S. Data Improves, Consistent with 2015 GDP Ramp-Up After Dismal Q1 Private-Sector Employment increased by 201,000 jobs in May, according to ADP. Light Vehicle Sales zoomed to a 17.8 million unit annual rate in May. The ISM Manufacturing Index for … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

The forward-looking data from this week were positive. The backward-looking numbers, not so much. U.S. real GDP growth for Q1 was revised to a -0.7 percent annual rate, about as expected. This is a backward looking number, and a number … Continue reading

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