Category Archives: General

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

Fed Raises Short-Term Interest Rates 25 Basis Points As Expected The Federal Reserve raised the target range of the fed funds rate by 25 basis points. The new Dot Plot remains consistent with three 25 basis point rate hikes in … Continue reading

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Feb. Consumer Prices, Retail Sales, Jan. Biz. Inventories, March NAHB and NY Fed

Nothing in Today’s Data Stops the Fed from Announcing a Rate Hike This Afternoon The February Consumer Price Index increased by 0.1 percent. Core CPI increased by 0.2 percent, and was up 2.2 percent over the previous 12 months. Retail … Continue reading

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February PPI, Small Business Confidence

Data Consistent with Fed Rate Hike Expectations for Tomorrow The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased by 0.3 percent in February. Core Producer Prices also increased by 0.3 percent. The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index sustained its recent surge, … Continue reading

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Fiscal Policy Uncertainty, Offsets, Scoring and Monetary Policy Inflections

Tax reform, trade policy, defense spending, deregulation, healthcare reform and infrastructure spending are all potential positives for the U.S. economy in 2017 and 2018. Until the Trump Administration unveils its plans through this spring and summer, and proves its ability … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

A March 15 fed funds rate hike cleared the last hurdle this morning upon the release of a solid February employment report. The official count of payroll jobs for February showed a net gain of 235,000, consistent with a variety … Continue reading

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February U.S. Employment

 Last Hurdle Cleared for March 15 Fed Rate Hike Payroll Employment increased by 235,000 jobs in February. The Unemployment Rate for February dipped to 4.7 percent. Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.2 percent for the month, the average workweek was … Continue reading

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February ADP Jobs, Q4 Productivity

Strong Job Gains Reinforce High Odds of March 15 Rate Hike The February ADP Employment Report showed a strong gain of 298,000 private-sector jobs for the month. Productivity increased in 2016Q4 at a 1.3 percent annualized rate. The ADP National … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It was early March Madness at the Federal Reserve as team Yellen exerted a full court press to pull interest rate hike expectations forward. They succeeded. Yellen capped a flurry of Fedspeak this week with her speech today saying that … Continue reading

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February ISM MF Index, Jan. Income, Construction Spending, Fedspeak

Likelihood of a March 15 Fed Rate Hike Climbing Quickly The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 57.7 in February. U.S. Personal Income increased by 0.4 percent in January. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index jumped by 0.4 percent in January. … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Arizona Index Improves

Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index increased in December, up 0.5 percentage points to a level of 112.1. December’s index reading is 35 points, or 46 percent, above the index cyclical low of 77.0. The index averaged 110.2 points for … Continue reading

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