Category Archives: Monthly

Global Expansion, Central Bank Strategy, the Bond Market and the Dollar

The global expansion remains engaged. The U.S economy, representing about one-fifth of global demand, got off to a sluggish start with 1.4 percent real GDP growth (annualized) in the first quarter. We expect U.S. GDP growth to approximately double for … Continue reading

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An Important Summer is Shaping Up in Washington

They say “Sell in May, and go away.” However, if you do that this year you are likely to miss a lot. The upcoming June 13/14 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is shaping up to be eventful. Also, the Trump … Continue reading

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Labor Market Dynamics, Inflation and the Fed

The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen faster than we expected. In April it dipped to 4.4 percent, pulled down by strong job growth, especially through February and March, as measured by the household survey of employment. The other input to … Continue reading

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Reshaping the Trump Bump and the Monetary Offset

The policy machinations of Washington D.C. will figure very large in the U.S. economy over the next year, both in terms of Trump Administration fiscal policy and the Yellen Fed monetary policy. Nearing the end of its first hundred days, … Continue reading

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Fiscal Policy Uncertainty, Offsets, Scoring and Monetary Policy Inflections

Tax reform, trade policy, defense spending, deregulation, healthcare reform and infrastructure spending are all potential positives for the U.S. economy in 2017 and 2018. Until the Trump Administration unveils its plans through this spring and summer, and proves its ability … Continue reading

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Positive Start to 2017, But Jobs Data Didn’t Add Up

U.S. economic data at the start of the first quarter is positive and consistent with real GDP growth in the neighborhood of 2.0-2.5 percent. Job growth in January was better than expected as 227,000 net new payroll jobs were added … Continue reading

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January 2017, Comerica Economic Outlook

Global Reflation and the Trump Swerve Commodity prices accelerated in the early 2000’s, encouraging the development of new supply and feeding capital investment globally. Very high commodity prices and the global financial market crisis led to significant demand destruction through … Continue reading

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December 2016, Comerica Economic Outlook

After a Weak Start, U.S. Economy Set to Finish 2016 on a Stronger Note The recent upward revision to Q3 real GDP growth, to 3.2 percent, is a look in the rear-view mirror, but it does suggest that the U.S. … Continue reading

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November 2016, Comerica Economic Outlook

U.S. Data Green Lights Fed for December Rate Hike After a weak first half of the year, third quarter real GDP growth improved to a 2.9 percent annualized rate. The inventory sell-off that weighed heavily on GDP growth in H1 … Continue reading

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October 2016, Comerica Economic Outlook

Firmer U.S. Forecast Ahead of an Interesting End of the Year By the end of the year we know that we will have a new president-elect, and we think we will have higher interest rates courtesy of the Federal Reserve. … Continue reading

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