Category Archives: Monthly

October 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Coupling, Decoupling, Reverberations and Over-Steer Increased awareness of downside risk has shaken financial markets since mid-September. The S&P 500 Index has declined nearly 7 percent from its September 18 peak at 2011 to October 14 at 1882. Likewise, Treasury bond … Continue reading

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September 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The Miss, the Pivot, the De-Synchronization, the Drag and the End of Slack U.S. payroll employment increased by only 142,000 in August, missing the consensus expectation of about 215,000. The weaker-than-expected jobs report breaks the chain of six consecutive +200K … Continue reading

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August 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Q2 GDP Bounce-Back Confirmed, but Rapid Growth is Not Sustainable The first estimate of Q2 real GDP growth exceeded expectations at 4.0 percent. Q2 GDP was boosted by an unsustainable surge in inventories, accounting for 1.7 percentage points of the … Continue reading

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July 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The Story: A Mid-Cycle U.S. Economy in a Multi-Speed World The endogenous growth story for the U.S. economy remains intact. There are two key channels of growth operating within the U.S. economy that have brought us through the recovery and … Continue reading

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June 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Q2 GDP Rebound Is in Gear, Green Light for 2014H2 The confluence of events that added up to –1.0 percent real GDP growth in 2014Q1 will not be repeated. The weather has normalized. After a sizeable inventory correction in Q1, … Continue reading

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May 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

After a Rough Start, 2014 Is Gaining Momentum; The New 2004 U.S. GDP for 2014 stumbled out of the starting blocks in the first quarter. This will keep GDP growth in the moderate range for this year despite signs of … Continue reading

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April 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

It’s a Spring Thaw for the U.S. Economy Recent data for the U.S. economy show a spring thaw in progress after one of the worst winters on record for parts of the upper Midwest. Consumer spending is picking up, companies … Continue reading

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March 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Weak Q1 But Fundamentals Still Look Good We expect to see a weak first quarter when the advance estimate of 2014Q1 GDP is published at the end of April. Weather impacted almost all economic metrics this winter. Personal consumption was … Continue reading

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February 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The Outlook for 2014 is Positive, But There Will Be Bumps We provide a grade of our economic outlook as a high-level assessment of our near-term expectations for the U.S. economy. A “C” rated outlook is consistent with a moderate … Continue reading

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Into the Weeds: A look at Two Obscure Labor Market Indicators

Assessing the health of the U.S. labor market is an important concern of economists and policy makers. The Great Recession cut household employment by 8.6 million jobs from November 2007 to December 2009.  Since the nadir, we have gained back … Continue reading

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