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Category Archives: Monthly
The Push and the Pull
The U.S. economy is experiencing the opposing forces of expansive monetary policy and tightening fiscal policy. Between the push and the pull, the private sector is expected to grow moderately through the remainder of this year, enough to bring the unemployment rate down slowly and keep real estate markets heading in a positive direction. Continue reading
Posted in General, Monthly, United States
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Michigan Index Gains in February
Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in February, up 0.1 points to a level of 117.8. Continue reading
California Index Up in February
Comerica Bank’s California Economic Activity Index climbed in February, gaining 3.3 points to a level of 104.1. February’s reading is 31 points, or 43 percent, above the index cyclical low of 72.7. The index averaged a revised 101 points for … Continue reading
Posted in California, Economic Activity, Monthly
Tagged california, economy, february, index
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Texas Index Dips in February
Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index fell slightly in February, declining 0.2 percentage points to a level of 105.5. The February reading is 34 points, or 48 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.5. The index averaged 102 points … Continue reading
The Inventory Swing and the Fiscal Cliff Increase Odds of Mid‐Year Lull
Real GDP growth for the recently completed first quarter of 2013 appears likely to exceed earlier expectations when the first estimate is released on April 26. Despite the drag from fiscal tightening, real GDP growth is set to register in … Continue reading
U.S. Economy Maintains Momentum As Fiscal Headwinds Increase
The federal spending sequester took effect March 1. The $85 billion reduction in federal defense and nondefense discretionary spending for FY2013 is expected to exert about a 0.6 percent drag on real GDP growth for 2013. This adds to the … Continue reading
Animal Spirits, Monetary Stimulus and Fiscal Tightening
In their 2009 book entitled “Animal Spirits,” George Akerlof and Robert Shiller characterize the term as a “restless and inconsistent element in the economy…sometimes we are paralyzed by it. Yet at other times it refreshes and energizes us, overcoming our … Continue reading
The Fiscal Cliff: Shoes Still Dropping, Gloves Are Off, Belts Are Tightening
President Obama signed the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 into law on January 2. While the passage of the act did reduce uncertainty about the tax burden facing U.S. households this year, it did not address all aspects of … Continue reading
Posted in Monthly, United States
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Looking for Traction on the Edge of the Fiscal Cliff
With the election behind us and hurricane season brought to a dramatic conclusion by Hurricane Sandy, the U.S. economy lurches, stumbles or fades at the end of 2012. The three verbs all imply a transition from the deceptively solid 2.7 … Continue reading
Posted in Monthly, United States
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Mild Acceleration in Economy Dampened by Fiscal Cliff, Hurricane Sandy
The U.S. economy accelerated mildly from a weak 1.3 percent real GDP growth rate in Q2 to 2.0 percent in Q3. Consumer spending increased, and so did federal government spending. The fly in the ointment came in the form of … Continue reading
Posted in General, Monthly, United States
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