Category Archives: Monthly

August 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Q2 GDP Bounce-Back Confirmed, but Rapid Growth is Not Sustainable The first estimate of Q2 real GDP growth exceeded expectations at 4.0 percent. Q2 GDP was boosted by an unsustainable surge in inventories, accounting for 1.7 percentage points of the … Continue reading

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July 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The Story: A Mid-Cycle U.S. Economy in a Multi-Speed World The endogenous growth story for the U.S. economy remains intact. There are two key channels of growth operating within the U.S. economy that have brought us through the recovery and … Continue reading

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June 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Q2 GDP Rebound Is in Gear, Green Light for 2014H2 The confluence of events that added up to –1.0 percent real GDP growth in 2014Q1 will not be repeated. The weather has normalized. After a sizeable inventory correction in Q1, … Continue reading

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May 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

After a Rough Start, 2014 Is Gaining Momentum; The New 2004 U.S. GDP for 2014 stumbled out of the starting blocks in the first quarter. This will keep GDP growth in the moderate range for this year despite signs of … Continue reading

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April 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

It’s a Spring Thaw for the U.S. Economy Recent data for the U.S. economy show a spring thaw in progress after one of the worst winters on record for parts of the upper Midwest. Consumer spending is picking up, companies … Continue reading

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March 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Weak Q1 But Fundamentals Still Look Good We expect to see a weak first quarter when the advance estimate of 2014Q1 GDP is published at the end of April. Weather impacted almost all economic metrics this winter. Personal consumption was … Continue reading

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February 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The Outlook for 2014 is Positive, But There Will Be Bumps We provide a grade of our economic outlook as a high-level assessment of our near-term expectations for the U.S. economy. A “C” rated outlook is consistent with a moderate … Continue reading

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Into the Weeds: A look at Two Obscure Labor Market Indicators

Assessing the health of the U.S. labor market is an important concern of economists and policy makers. The Great Recession cut household employment by 8.6 million jobs from November 2007 to December 2009.  Since the nadir, we have gained back … Continue reading

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Better Data Nudge Fed Closer to Taper, A Budget Deal Would Make it Easier

Recent U.S. economic data has generally been stronger than expected. Payroll jobs increased by 203,000 in November, following a 200,000 job gain in October. The separate household employment survey, which took a 735,000 job dive in October because of the … Continue reading

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The First Hints of the Yellen Fed

In her prepared remarks for her Senate confirmation hearing, Janet Yellen gave no specific recommendations for monetary policy changes. She is widely expected to be confirmed as the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee later this year. She … Continue reading

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