Category Archives: Monthly

June 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The mystery number known as Q1 real gross domestic product growth is currently set at -0.7 percent. That may not be its final resting place. On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its annual revision for the … Continue reading

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May 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

You never cross the same river twice. This also is true of the complex adaptive system known as the U.S. economy; it is always changing. As we muddle through the current business cycle, three distinct economic periods are apparent. First … Continue reading

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April 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

If Punxsutawney Phil was an economist instead of a groundhog, he would have said on February 2, “six more weeks of soft data.” It was a bad winter for much of the country, and like the cold weather, soft economic … Continue reading

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March 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The U.S. jobs machine remains in high gear. Despite bad weather, 295,000 payroll jobs were added on net in February. Job gains were broad-based but there was a decline in the mining sector of 9,300 jobs, consistent with lower crude … Continue reading

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February 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

A consistent clear positive signal for the U.S. economy is coming from job growth. Payrolls in January registered a stronger-than-expected 257,000 net new jobs. The already strong November and December jobs numbers were revised up to a robust 423,000 and … Continue reading

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January 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

U.S. Economy Set for Growth in 2015, Shifting Regional Patterns U.S. economic data at year-end 2014 was strong and we expect that momentum to carry over into 2015. In December, 252,000 payroll jobs were added, and the already strong October … Continue reading

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December 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Reset in Q4 GDP but Still Good Momentum at Year End We look for a reset in Q4 real GDP growth after two strong quarters. Following a weak start to the year, in part due to extreme winter weather conditions … Continue reading

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November 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Economic Data Soothes After October Financial Market Jitters After significant financial market volatility in October, business conditions appear to be improving. Financial markets have stabilized, with equity indexes reaching new highs by mid-November. Economic indicators remain strong with Q3 real … Continue reading

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October 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Coupling, Decoupling, Reverberations and Over-Steer Increased awareness of downside risk has shaken financial markets since mid-September. The S&P 500 Index has declined nearly 7 percent from its September 18 peak at 2011 to October 14 at 1882. Likewise, Treasury bond … Continue reading

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September 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The Miss, the Pivot, the De-Synchronization, the Drag and the End of Slack U.S. payroll employment increased by only 142,000 in August, missing the consensus expectation of about 215,000. The weaker-than-expected jobs report breaks the chain of six consecutive +200K … Continue reading

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