Category Archives: Monthly

December 2016, Comerica Economic Outlook

After a Weak Start, U.S. Economy Set to Finish 2016 on a Stronger Note The recent upward revision to Q3 real GDP growth, to 3.2 percent, is a look in the rear-view mirror, but it does suggest that the U.S. … Continue reading

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November 2016, Comerica Economic Outlook

U.S. Data Green Lights Fed for December Rate Hike After a weak first half of the year, third quarter real GDP growth improved to a 2.9 percent annualized rate. The inventory sell-off that weighed heavily on GDP growth in H1 … Continue reading

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October 2016, Comerica Economic Outlook

Firmer U.S. Forecast Ahead of an Interesting End of the Year By the end of the year we know that we will have a new president-elect, and we think we will have higher interest rates courtesy of the Federal Reserve. … Continue reading

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September 2016, Comerica Economic Outlook

Through the second half of August, several Federal Reserve officials suggested that a federal funds interest rate hike may come sooner rather than later. In her speech at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole , Wyoming, on August 26, … Continue reading

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August 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The July jobs report put to rest lingering fears of a downshift in U.S. job growth that were amplified by a weak May employment report. A strong 255,000 net new jobs were added to the U.S. economy in July following … Continue reading

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July 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The historic vote in the United Kingdom to leave the European Union sent shock waves through global financial markets, dropping sovereign bond yields and supporting the dollar relative to the pound and the euro. The discreet event is over, the … Continue reading

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June 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Recent U.S. economic data has generally been positive. The very weak first quarter real GDP growth has been revised up from the initial estimate of 0.5 percent annualized, to 0.8 percent. We expect to see another minor upward revision to … Continue reading

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May 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

When you are flying close to the treetops, you have to watch out for the downdrafts. Clearly the U.S. economy was flying close to the treetops in the first quarter of this year. Real GDP growth registered a weak 0.5 … Continue reading

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April 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

We expect to see another sub-par GDP report for the recently completed first quarter of 2016 when the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth is released on April 28. Consumer spending has been stable, but uninspired. Business investment has been … Continue reading

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March 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The quality of U.S. economic data has shifted in recent weeks from being generally a little worse than expected to being generally a little better than expected. The February payroll data showed a strong 242,000 jobs added to the U.S. … Continue reading

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