Category Archives: Monthly

Better Data Nudge Fed Closer to Taper, A Budget Deal Would Make it Easier

Recent U.S. economic data has generally been stronger than expected. Payroll jobs increased by 203,000 in November, following a 200,000 job gain in October. The separate household employment survey, which took a 735,000 job dive in October because of the … Continue reading

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The First Hints of the Yellen Fed

In her prepared remarks for her Senate confirmation hearing, Janet Yellen gave no specific recommendations for monetary policy changes. She is widely expected to be confirmed as the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee later this year. She … Continue reading

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Uncertainty Redux: This Time It Is Entirely Self Imposed

Uncertainty has reared its ugly head again. This time it is entirely self imposed. The congressional budget impasse and the potential spillover to the debt ceiling has elevated uncertainty and will likely depress business and consumer confidence in October. The … Continue reading

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Incipient Normalcy and the New Abnormal

Aspects of the U.S. economy are beginning to act more normally. House prices are up 12 percent over last year. Auto sales hit a 16.1 million unit rate in August. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are back to pre-recession levels. … Continue reading

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Q2 Looking Better and Better, Teeing up Growth for 2013 H2

Remember that they call it the dismal science for a reason, when you recall how gloomy the forecasts were for second quarter real GDP growth. Some forecasters warned about the possibility of a negative quarter. The advance (first) estimate of … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Florida Index Climbs in May

Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index grew by 5.0 percentage points in May, to a level of 120.0. The May index reading is 39 points, or 49 percent, above the index cyclical low of 80.6. The index averaged 105 in … Continue reading

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A Weak Q2, But Increasing Momentum Through H2

The recently completed second quarter looks vulnerable to a weak GDP print. The drag from fiscal tightening will combine with mediocre business investment, a widening trade gap and weak inventory accumulation to bring overall economic growth back into the “weak-to-modest” … Continue reading

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Plodding Through Mid-2013, More Push, More Pull

Themes for the U.S. economy have not changed significantly over the last month.  Monetary policy remains highly expansive, pushing on financial markets, while fiscal policy remains contractionary, pulling on federal government spending. Housing has emerged as a driver for the … Continue reading

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The Push and the Pull

The U.S. economy is experiencing the opposing forces of expansive monetary policy and tightening fiscal policy. Between the push and the pull, the private sector is expected to grow moderately through the remainder of this year, enough to bring the unemployment rate down slowly and keep real estate markets heading in a positive direction. Continue reading

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The Inventory Swing and the Fiscal Cliff Increase Odds of Mid‐Year Lull

Real GDP growth for the recently completed first quarter of 2013 appears likely to exceed earlier expectations when the first estimate is released on April 26. Despite the drag from fiscal tightening, real GDP growth is set to register in … Continue reading

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