Category Archives: Monthly

Animal Spirits, Monetary Stimulus and Fiscal Tightening

Posted on February 6, 2013 by Comerica Economics

In their 2009 book entitled “Animal Spirits,” George Akerlof and Robert Shiller characterize the term as a “restless and inconsistent element in the economy…sometimes we are paralyzed by it. Yet at other times it refreshes and energizes us, overcoming our … Continue reading →

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The Fiscal Cliff: Shoes Still Dropping, Gloves Are Off, Belts Are Tightening

Posted on January 14, 2013 by Comerica Economics

President Obama signed the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 into law on January 2. While the passage of the act did reduce uncertainty about the tax burden facing U.S. households this year, it did not address all aspects of … Continue reading →

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Looking for Traction on the Edge of the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on December 11, 2012 by Comerica Economics

With the election behind us and hurricane season brought to a dramatic conclusion by Hurricane Sandy, the U.S. economy lurches, stumbles or fades at the end of 2012. The three verbs all imply a transition from the deceptively solid 2.7 … Continue reading →

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Mild Acceleration in Economy Dampened by Fiscal Cliff, Hurricane Sandy

Posted on November 6, 2012 by Comerica Economics

The U.S. economy accelerated mildly from a weak 1.3 percent real GDP growth rate in Q2 to 2.0 percent in Q3.  Consumer spending increased, and so did federal government spending. The fly in the ointment came in the form of … Continue reading →

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September Producer Price Index, August Trade, October Sentiment and UI Claims

Posted on October 12, 2012 by Comerica Economics

Grab Bag of Data Consistent with Moderate Improvement in 2012H2  The September Producer Price Index increased by 1.1 percent, pushed by higher energy prices. The Core PPI for Finished Goods was unchanged in September, checked by declining equipment prices. The … Continue reading →

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Whistling Past the Graveyard: U.S. Data Improves as the Headless Horseman Lurks

Posted on October 10, 2012 by Comerica Economics

Our Halloween update features improving U.S. data highlighted by the surprising drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8 percent for September. Overseas, it is looking scary. The Gordian knot of Europe’s many problems continues to defy quick solutions. China scrambles … Continue reading →

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U.S. Consumers Muscle Through Q3 as Global Policy Spigots Open

Posted on September 14, 2012 by Comerica Economics

When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping. And that appears to be happening in Q3, following a weak Q2. Second quarter real GDP growth registered a disappointing 1.7 percent annualized growth rate, matched by tepid consumer spending, which … Continue reading →

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U.S. Consumers Muscle Through Q3 as Global Policy Spigots Open

Posted on September 13, 2012 by Comerica Economics

When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping. And that appears to be happening in Q3, following a weak Q2. Second quarter real GDP growth registered a disappointing 1.7 percent annualized growth rate, matched by tepid consumer spending, which … Continue reading →

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Is the U.S. Expansion Durable? Data Says Yes, For Now

Posted on August 7, 2012 by Comerica Economics

The U.S. economy added 163,000 new payroll jobs on net in July, exceeding consensus expectations. That was the good news in the July employment report. The bad news came from the separate household survey of employment, which determines the unemployment … Continue reading →

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Jobs Drought Threatens Recovery, Rainmaking Still on Hold

Posted on July 9, 2012 by Comerica Economics

The official Bureau of Labor Statistics count of payroll jobs created in June was a disappointing 80,000, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2 percent. The June jobs data confirms that the slowdown in hiring, first visible in March, … Continue reading →

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