Category Archives: State Outlooks

Category page for State Economic Outlooks

Arizona Economy On Positive Course Despite Q1 Slow Down

Revised Arizona payroll employment data were mixed. Starting with the positive, the Bureau of Labor Statistics annual revision indicated that Arizona added 69,700 jobs last year. This is twice the amount of jobs in 2016 than the original data implied. … Continue reading

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Florida Economy Maintains Momentum in Early 2017

The Florida economy is on pace to expand in the first half of 2017 as state real gross domestic product growth improves, boosted by strong job and income growth. Construction employment alone, which is the third largest labor sector after … Continue reading

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California’s Aging Business Cycle and Trumponomics

The story for the California economy, now in its seventh year of economic expansion since the Great Recession, has remained relatively consistent over the past few years. The state is showing signs that it is maturing later into the economic … Continue reading

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Michigan to Benefit from Automaker Investment

Michigan economy is at a crossroads. The economic recovery fueled by the rebounding auto sector has been a tremendous positive for the state, but that is largely played out. We expect auto sales in 2017 to step down from the … Continue reading

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More Evidence of a Turn in the Texas Economy

For the first time since the first quarter of 2015, Texas put together back-to-back quarters of positive state-level real GDP growth in the second half of 2016. We expect the string of real gains to state gross domestic product to … Continue reading

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Arizona’s Economy Will Catch a Tailwind

Recently released data from the Census Bureau indicate that net migration into Arizona has been stronger than previously estimated. This is a positive sign for the state’s private services and housing sector activity outlook for 2017. An increasing population has … Continue reading

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Florida’s Virtuous Cycle and Real Estate Leasing Headwinds

Most of the underlying fundamentals of the Florida economy remained positive heading into the start of 2017. Driving the state’s economy is the virtuous cycle of job growth and population gains seen over the past few years. Florida employment was … Continue reading

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Persistent Risks to California Manufacturing Employment

California employment growth moderated in 2016. Employment data showed that California total nonfarm payrolls were up by 2.0 percent, or 332,500 jobs, in the 12 months ending in December. The first read on full-year 2016 California jobs numbers is positive, … Continue reading

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Texas Is Turning the Corner, But It will Be a Slow Turn

Texas narrowly missed a technical recession over 2015 and 2016 as real state gross domestic product declined every other quarter from 2015Q2 through 2016Q2 (we define a technical recession as two or more consecutive quarters of declining real GDP). Moreover, … Continue reading

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Michigan to Benefit from Automaker Investment

The Michigan economy is much more than just autos and other durable goods manufacturing, but the auto sector still drives the state economy. Recent announcements of new investments in the state by automakers is good news for Michigan, but risks … Continue reading

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