Category Archives: United States

Comerica Economic Weekly

As we close out first quarter U.S. data releases it has become obvious that the U.S. economy lost significant momentum over the winter. First quarter 2016 real GDP growth was a weak 0.5 percent annualized growth. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, … Continue reading

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2016Q1 GDP, April UI Claims, FOMC

Weak First Quarter GDP Dragged Down by Business Investment, Inventories, Trade, Defense Real Gross Domestic Product for 2016Q1 increased at a weak 0.5 percent annual rate. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance increased by 9,000 to 257,000 for the week ending … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. economic data released this week from the end of the first quarter was consistent with our expectation of anemic Q1 growth, followed by improving conditions in the current quarter and beyond. Let’s start with the good news first. The … Continue reading

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March Leading Indicators, Existing Home Sales, April UI Claims, ECB/FOMC

Indicators Positive but Fed not Likely to Respond The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for March increased by 0.2 percent. Existing Home Sales for March increased by 5.1 percent to a 5.33 million unit annual rate. Initial Claims for Unemployment … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Oil prices have turned, and so have a host of economic indicators. We expect April’s CPI and PPI to further reflect the push from higher crude oil and product prices, beyond what we saw this week in the March PPI … Continue reading

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March Retail Sales, Producer Prices, February Inventories

Headline Numbers Weak, But Details Mixed in Today’s Economic Data March Retail Sales declined by 0.3 percent, as auto sales fell. Ex-auto Retail Sales increased by 0.2 percent, supported by building materials. The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It was a fairly light week for U.S. economic data. Economic news was dominated by oil prices, Fedspeak and the dollar. This was not a spurious relationship. The three are closely linked. Let’s start with oil. U.S. oil prices respond … Continue reading

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March ISM Non-MF, February Trade and JOLTS

Trade Expected to Drag on Q1 GDP, Service Sector and Labor Data Positive The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March increased to 54.5 percent. The U.S. International Trade Gap widened in February to -$47.1 billion. The JOLTS Report for February showed … Continue reading

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April 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

We expect to see another sub-par GDP report for the recently completed first quarter of 2016 when the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth is released on April 28. Consumer spending has been stable, but uninspired. Business investment has been … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. economic data at the start of the second quarter is looking good. Labor data for March was solid. Payroll employment increased by 215,000 jobs for the month, a little stronger than expected. Despite the strong job gains the unemployment … Continue reading

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