Category Archives: United States

Comerica Economic Weekly

Inverting Charles Dickens, we can say that it is not the best of times nor the worst of times for the U.S. economy. This week’s crop of data are consistent with an economy that downshifted this winter, but still maintains … Continue reading

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January U.S. Employment, December Trade

Payroll Gains Less Than Expected, But Other Labor Indicators Positive January Payroll Employment increased by a 151,000 jobs, below consensus expectations of 185,000. The Unemployment Rate for January declined to 4.9 percent. The U.S. International Trade Gap widened in December … Continue reading

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January ADP Jobs, ISM Non-MF Index, Auto Sales

Jobs Increasing, Cars Driving, Service Sector Expanding, but at a Slower Rate The January ADP Employment Report showed a gain of 205,000 private-sector jobs. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for January dipped again to a still-positive 53.5 percent. January Auto Sales … Continue reading

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January ISM-MF, December Income/Spending, Construction Spending

A Shifting U.S. Economy Struggles to Find Traction This Winter The ISM Manufacturing Index for January increased slightly to 48.2 percent, still indicating contraction. U.S. Personal Income lifted by 0.3 percent in December. Real disposable income gained 0.4 percent. Nominal … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

We thought 2015Q4 real GDP growth was going to be weak and it turns out that we were right. The advance estimate of Q4 real GDP growth came in at an anemic 0.7 percent, just below our forecast of 0.8 … Continue reading

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FOMC Statement, December New Home Sales, November House Prices

Fed Keeps Key Interest Rate Unchanged As Expected The Federal Open Market Committee voted today to keep the fed funds target range unchanged. New Home Sales for December surged by 10.8 percent to a 544,000 unit annual rate. The U.S. … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Global equity markets rallied today after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi strongly hinted that the ECB would ramp up its asset purchase program as early as March. Draghi said yesterday that “there are no limits to how far we … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

The U.S. economic data stream so far in January has been rocky with the notable exception of the strong December jobs report. Today we see big losses in U.S. equity markets and oil prices below $30 per barrel. The Federal … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Slushy Data Will Freeze the Fed this Winter Recent financial market volatility plus another leg down in oil prices, to near $30 per barrel for WTI, will make for an interesting discussion at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting … Continue reading

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January 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

We begin 2016 with expectations of ongoing moderate growth for the U.S. economy. Real GDP growth steps down from 2.4 percent in 2015, to about 2.1 percent for all of 2016. Strong job growth, low gasoline prices, easier mortgage credit, … Continue reading

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