Category Archives: United States

February U.S. International Trade

Fears of Big Drag from Trade on Q1 GDP Diminished with New Data The Trade Gap narrowed by $4.6 billion in February, to -$43.6 billion. Exports increased marginally by $0.4 billion, with slightly stronger exports of goods. Imports fell by … Continue reading

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March ISM-MF Index, February Construction Spending, Fed Balance Sheet

 Good Data Accompanies Discussion of Fed’s Balance Sheet The ISM Manufacturing Index for March decreased to a still-positive 57.2, showing improving conditions. Construction spending increased by 0.8 percent in March, boosted by private multi-family projects. The ISM Manufacturing Index for … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Tactical Versus Strategic Thinking at the Fed Last Monday I wrote that the Fed still has work to do in order to set monetary policy expectations for the second half of this year. This week, various Fed officials, including FOMC … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Expectations for a fed funds rate hike at the upcoming May 2-3 Federal Open Market Committee meeting remain muted. According to the fed funds futures market, the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on May 3 is … Continue reading

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February New and Existing Home Sales, March UI Claims

New Home Sales Strong in February New Home Sales increased by 6.1 percent to a 592,000 unit annual rate. Existing Home Sales fell by 3.7 percent in February to a 5,480,000 unit annual rate. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance gained … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Along with the highly anticipated monetary policy statement of March 15, when the Federal Reserve announced that they were increasing interest rates for the third time in this tightening cycle, the Federal Open Market Committee also issued an updated “dot … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It was a busy week. A plethora of U.S. economic data was released. The Federal Reserve increased the fed funds rate and other central banks made policy announcements. Politics happened on both sides of the Atlantic. Even with all that, … Continue reading

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Feb. Residential Construction, March UI Claims and Philly Fed, Jan. JOLTS

Grab Bag of Data Consistent with Ongoing Economic Momentum Housing Starts increased in February by 3.0 percent to a 1,288,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction decreased by 6.2 percent to a 1,213,000 unit pace in February. Initial … Continue reading

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Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

Fed Raises Short-Term Interest Rates 25 Basis Points As Expected The Federal Reserve raised the target range of the fed funds rate by 25 basis points. The new Dot Plot remains consistent with three 25 basis point rate hikes in … Continue reading

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Feb. Consumer Prices, Retail Sales, Jan. Biz. Inventories, March NAHB and NY Fed

Nothing in Today’s Data Stops the Fed from Announcing a Rate Hike This Afternoon The February Consumer Price Index increased by 0.1 percent. Core CPI increased by 0.2 percent, and was up 2.2 percent over the previous 12 months. Retail … Continue reading

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