Category Archives: United States

From the Desk of Robert Dye

Slushy Data Will Freeze the Fed this Winter Recent financial market volatility plus another leg down in oil prices, to near $30 per barrel for WTI, will make for an interesting discussion at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting … Continue reading

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January 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

We begin 2016 with expectations of ongoing moderate growth for the U.S. economy. Real GDP growth steps down from 2.4 percent in 2015, to about 2.1 percent for all of 2016. Strong job growth, low gasoline prices, easier mortgage credit, … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Economic data from the first week of 2016 was mixed, but ended on a high note with a very strong jobs report for December. China dominated financial market news as weak manufacturing data there contributed to a selloff in Chinese … Continue reading

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December U.S. Employment

Robust Job Gains in 2015Q4 Support Ongoing Expansion December Payroll Employment increased by a strong 292,000 jobs, well above consensus expectations. Already good October and November payroll levels were revised up by a total of 50,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate … Continue reading

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December ADP Jobs, ISM Non-MF Index, Auto Sales, November Trade

Data Support Case for Ongoing Momentum in 2016 The December ADP Employment Report showed a strong increase of 257,000 private-sector jobs. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for December dipped to a still-positive 55.3 percent. December Auto Sales missed expectations, easing to … Continue reading

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December ISM Manufacturing, November Construction Spending

Manufacturing Sector Contracts for Second Month The ISM Manufacturing Index for December decreased again to a contractionary 48.2 percent. Construction Spending decreased by 0.4 percent in November as public construction eased. The ISM Manufacturing Survey declined in December to 48.2 … Continue reading

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November Home Sales, Income/Spending, Durable Goods and Q3 GDP

Home Sales Slump on Mortgage Processing Personal Income increased by 0.3 percent in November. Consumer Spending also gained 0.3 percent. New Home Sales for November increased by 4.3 percent to a 490,000 unit annual rate. Existing Home Sales for November … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase the fed funds rate to a range of 25 to 50 basis points, launching a new monetary tightening cycle. This was exactly as expected and financial markets appear to … Continue reading

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FOMC Policy Announcement

Fed Does the Expected and Raises the Fed Funds Rate The Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise the fed funds rate to a range of 25 to 50 bps. Forward Guidance emphasizes a gradual approach to future rate hikes … Continue reading

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November Residential Construction, Industrial Production

Stronger Construction and Weaker Production Numbers Launch Fed Day November Housing Starts increased by 10.5 percent to a 1,173,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction increased by 11.0 percent to a 1,289,000 unit pace. Industrial Production fell by … Continue reading

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