Category Archives: United States

February PPI, Small Business Confidence

Data Consistent with Fed Rate Hike Expectations for Tomorrow The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased by 0.3 percent in February. Core Producer Prices also increased by 0.3 percent. The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index sustained its recent surge, … Continue reading

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Fiscal Policy Uncertainty, Offsets, Scoring and Monetary Policy Inflections

Tax reform, trade policy, defense spending, deregulation, healthcare reform and infrastructure spending are all potential positives for the U.S. economy in 2017 and 2018. Until the Trump Administration unveils its plans through this spring and summer, and proves its ability … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

A March 15 fed funds rate hike cleared the last hurdle this morning upon the release of a solid February employment report. The official count of payroll jobs for February showed a net gain of 235,000, consistent with a variety … Continue reading

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February U.S. Employment

 Last Hurdle Cleared for March 15 Fed Rate Hike Payroll Employment increased by 235,000 jobs in February. The Unemployment Rate for February dipped to 4.7 percent. Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.2 percent for the month, the average workweek was … Continue reading

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February ADP Jobs, Q4 Productivity

Strong Job Gains Reinforce High Odds of March 15 Rate Hike The February ADP Employment Report showed a strong gain of 298,000 private-sector jobs for the month. Productivity increased in 2016Q4 at a 1.3 percent annualized rate. The ADP National … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It was early March Madness at the Federal Reserve as team Yellen exerted a full court press to pull interest rate hike expectations forward. They succeeded. Yellen capped a flurry of Fedspeak this week with her speech today saying that … Continue reading

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February ISM MF Index, Jan. Income, Construction Spending, Fedspeak

Likelihood of a March 15 Fed Rate Hike Climbing Quickly The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 57.7 in February. U.S. Personal Income increased by 0.4 percent in January. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index jumped by 0.4 percent in January. … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. economic data remains positive at the end of a fairly quiet week. January housing data bounced back after a weak December. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the January 31/February 1 Federal Open Market Committee. We heard more … Continue reading

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January Existing Home Sales, Fed Minutes

Sales Bounce Back After December Dip Existing Home Sales increased by 3.3 percent in January to a 5,690,000 unit annual rate. Fed minutes show concern about communication strategy. Existing home sales bounced back in January, gaining 3.3 percent, to a … Continue reading

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January Residential Construction, February UI Claims

Single-Family Rising, Multifamily Heading into Third Year Range-Bound Housing Starts dipped in January by 2.6 percent to a 1,246,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction increased by 4.6 percent to a 1,285,000 unit pace in January. Initial Claims … Continue reading

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