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Category Archives: United States
Comerica Economic Weekly
U.S. economic data for January continues to be fairly benign, masking some issues that will show up more in February. Price indexes do not yet reflect higher petroleum prices. Even as retail gasoline prices climbed, the energy price components of … Continue reading
Posted in United States, Weekly
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Comerica Economic Weekly
Data through mid-February are consistent with ongoing modest-to-moderate real GDP expansion in Q1 in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 percent annualized. The interpretation of January retail sales is mixed. Because retail sales last October, at the start of … Continue reading
Posted in United States, Weekly
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January Industrial Production, February Consumer Sentiment, UI Claims
Mixed Data Consistent with Modest-to-Moderate Expansion in Q1 Industrial Production for January decreased by 0.1 percent as motor vehicle output dipped. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment increased in early February to 76.3. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance fell by 24,000 … Continue reading
Posted in Daily, United States
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January Retail Sales, NFIB Survey, December JOLTS
Consumers Off to a Sluggish Start for Q1, Taxes Matter January Retail Sales increased by just 0.1 percent as consumers adjusted to higher taxes. Ex-auto Retail Sales gained 0.2 percent as general merchandise stores gained 1.1 percent. The NFIB Business … Continue reading
Comerica Economic Weekly
It was a light week for economic data with nothing to dispel the fog that has settled over the current quarter as we wait to see how consumers react to fiscal tightening. Strong income growth in December due to tax-avoidance … Continue reading
December International Trade, Q4 Productivity, January UI Claims
Positive December Trade Data Expected to Erase Negative on Q4 GDP The U.S. International Trade gap narrowed more than expected in December to -$38.5 billion. Nonfarm Productivity declined at a 2.0 percent annual rate in Q4 due to nonrepeating … Continue reading
Animal Spirits, Monetary Stimulus and Fiscal Tightening
In their 2009 book entitled “Animal Spirits,” George Akerlof and Robert Shiller characterize the term as a “restless and inconsistent element in the economy…sometimes we are paralyzed by it. Yet at other times it refreshes and energizes us, overcoming our … Continue reading
Comerica Economic Weekly
This week’s bumper crop of data was mixed (a farmer might call it a succotash field, to stretch the analogy) as the negative sign on fourth quarter GDP and the increase in the unemployment rate in January were countered by … Continue reading
January U.S. Employment, ISM Manufacturing Index, Dec. Construction
Limping Into 2013 as Fiscal Headwinds Increase The January Payroll Employment Survey showed a gain of 157,000 jobs, a bit below expectations. The Unemployment Rate for January increased to 7.9 percent, essentially unchanged for 5 months. Average Weekly Hours were … Continue reading
Posted in Daily, United States
Tagged alert, Construction, daily, employment, ISM, Manufacturing, unemployment
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2012Q4 GDP and Federal Reserve Policy Announcement
Q4 Real GDP Contracts Slightly, Monetary Policy Stays on Course Real Gross Domestic Product decreased slightly at a -0.1 percent annualized rate in 2012Q4. The drag came from inventories and Federal defense spending. Consumer spending, business fixed investment and residential … Continue reading
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