Category Archives: United States

From the Desk of Robert Dye

Labor Markets and the Productivity Conundrum According to the folks at Merriam-Webster, a conundrum is a confusing or difficult problem. It is also the 193rd most popular word on Merriam-Webster.com. I suspect that its popularity is rising, especially amongst economists. … Continue reading

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May ADP Employment, Auto Sales, ISM MF and Non-MF, April Trade

U.S. Data Improves, Consistent with 2015 GDP Ramp-Up After Dismal Q1 Private-Sector Employment increased by 201,000 jobs in May, according to ADP. Light Vehicle Sales zoomed to a 17.8 million unit annual rate in May. The ISM Manufacturing Index for … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

The forward-looking data from this week were positive. The backward-looking numbers, not so much. U.S. real GDP growth for Q1 was revised to a -0.7 percent annual rate, about as expected. This is a backward looking number, and a number … Continue reading

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From the Desk of Robert Dye

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims Increase, but Still Look Very Good Labor market metrics continue to look good. Today’s data release of initial claims for unemployment insurance shows an increase of 7,000 initial claims for the week ending May 23, to … Continue reading

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May Consumer Confidence, April Home Sales, Durable Goods, March Home Prices

Better Data Bolsters Case for GDP Rebound New Home Sales for April increased by 6.8 percent to an annual rate of 517,000 units. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index climbed moderately to 95.4 in May. New Orders for Durable Goods … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

In an increasingly familiar pattern, data was mixed again this week. Forward-looking indicators were generally positive and consistent with improved economic performance this summer. After slumping through February and March, residential construction activity rebounded in April. Total housing starts surged … Continue reading

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April Leading Indicators, Existing Home Sales, May UI Claims, Fedspeak

Indicators Show Rebound After Weak Q1, Fed Rules Out June Lift-Off The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for April increased by 0.7 percent. Existing Home Sales for April declined by 3.3 percent to a 5.04 million unit annual rate. Initial … Continue reading

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April Residential Construction, May Home Builders Survey

Housing Started but Builders Balked April Housing Starts increased by a strong 20.2 percent to a 1,135,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction climbed in April by 10.1 percent to a 1,143,000 unit pace. The National Association of … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It was a another week of softer-than-expected U.S. data. Our view is that this is a transitional economy right now. The drivers of the U.S. economy through the post-recession recovery phase are giving way to a new set of drivers … Continue reading

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May 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

You never cross the same river twice. This also is true of the complex adaptive system known as the U.S. economy; it is always changing. As we muddle through the current business cycle, three distinct economic periods are apparent. First … Continue reading

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