Category Archives: Weekly

Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. economic data at the start of the second quarter is looking good. Labor data for March was solid. Payroll employment increased by 215,000 jobs for the month, a little stronger than expected. Despite the strong job gains the unemployment … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

March has been a better month for U.S. financial markets. Equity markets have now largely clawed back their January and early February losses. Long-term bond yields have increased, but not by as much as they would have without the downward … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

This week’s economic news was dominated by the March 15-16 FOMC meeting, where the Fed decided, as expected, to leave the fed funds rate unchanged. Little forward guidance came from the Fed’s policy announcement or from Janet Yellen’s press conference. … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Super Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, announced a mix of actions by the ECB that are designed to boost credit availability and financial market liquidity in the European Union. Draghi’s bazooka, as it was called in the … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It feels like U.S. economic data is changing from a little worse than expected since the start of the year, to a little better than expected as we finish up the first quarter. We reflect this in our lower odds … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. data released at the end of February were mixed, but the week ended on a positive note with a better-than-expected revision for 2015Q4 GDP and good income numbers for January. Real GDP for the fourth quarter of last year … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. data released in the middle of February are consistent with a “real” economy that is maintaining some momentum despite unsettling financial market news. The most significant deviation from expectations this week came from price indexes, which show an underlying … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Given recent financial market volatility, soft global conditions and the expected weak performance of U.S. GDP from the fourth quarter of last year through the first quarter of this year, we have to say that the probability of recession for … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Inverting Charles Dickens, we can say that it is not the best of times nor the worst of times for the U.S. economy. This week’s crop of data are consistent with an economy that downshifted this winter, but still maintains … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

We thought 2015Q4 real GDP growth was going to be weak and it turns out that we were right. The advance estimate of Q4 real GDP growth came in at an anemic 0.7 percent, just below our forecast of 0.8 … Continue reading

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