Category Archives: Weekly

Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. data released in the middle of February are consistent with a “real” economy that is maintaining some momentum despite unsettling financial market news. The most significant deviation from expectations this week came from price indexes, which show an underlying … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Given recent financial market volatility, soft global conditions and the expected weak performance of U.S. GDP from the fourth quarter of last year through the first quarter of this year, we have to say that the probability of recession for … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Inverting Charles Dickens, we can say that it is not the best of times nor the worst of times for the U.S. economy. This week’s crop of data are consistent with an economy that downshifted this winter, but still maintains … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

We thought 2015Q4 real GDP growth was going to be weak and it turns out that we were right. The advance estimate of Q4 real GDP growth came in at an anemic 0.7 percent, just below our forecast of 0.8 … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Global equity markets rallied today after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi strongly hinted that the ECB would ramp up its asset purchase program as early as March. Draghi said yesterday that “there are no limits to how far we … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

The U.S. economic data stream so far in January has been rocky with the notable exception of the strong December jobs report. Today we see big losses in U.S. equity markets and oil prices below $30 per barrel. The Federal … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Economic data from the first week of 2016 was mixed, but ended on a high note with a very strong jobs report for December. China dominated financial market news as weak manufacturing data there contributed to a selloff in Chinese … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to increase the fed funds rate to a range of 25 to 50 basis points, launching a new monetary tightening cycle. This was exactly as expected and financial markets appear to … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Economic data leading up to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting of next week was within expected ranges. The most significant data point of the week was the price of oil, which has now dropped to about $36 per barrel … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. payroll job growth for November was a little stronger than expected, coming in at 211,000 net new jobs. The unemployment was unchanged at 5.0 percent and average hourly earnings ticked up by 0.2 percent for the month. The solid … Continue reading

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