San Diego MSA Economy Remains Positive in the Face of Uncertainty

Current California economic activity measures are showing signs of a two-handed economy. On the one hand, overall job growth in non-manufacturing sectors continues to be a fundamental positive for the state’s economy. However, the state’s manufacturing sector is feeling the impact of the appreciation of the U.S. dollar compared to major trading partners and is contracting. Also, California’s technology sector has faced stagnant stock prices and squeezed corporate profits. We expect the California economy to continue to grow at a moderate pace this year, supported by firmer residential construction activity and a more positive outlook for the technology sector as we progress through 2016.

San Diego MSA job growth continued to improve in 2016Q1, up 1.8 percent from 2015Q4. Recent gains in area job growth pushed the San Diego unemployment rate down to a nine-year low at 4.6 percent in March. The improvement in San Diego’s job growth occurred even as other major metro areas around the state struggled with financial market volatility at the start of the year. The S&P 500 Biotechnology sub-index was still down around 15 percent from the July 2015 high as of April. We expect to see the overall tech sector and related industries continue to stabilize as we move towards the second half of 2016. Market stabilization would support our current San Diego MSA outlook of improving area labor markets this year.

California’s new $15 minimum wage law is expected to impact 522,000 workers in the San Diego MSA by 2023, according to the UC Berkeley Labor Center. The law incrementally increases the minimum wage from 2017 to 2022 for businesses with 26 or more employees and from 2018 to 2023 for businesses with 25 or less employees. In 2014, the state’s minimum wage was raised from $8 an hour to $9. The new law will almost double the minimum wage in the course of eight years. There are social benefits to improving wages for lower paid workers. However, the San Diego MSA is already an expensive place to do business and this makes the “sunshine tax” for businesses that much higher.

There is increasing political uncertainty surrounding trade deals such as the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement and Trans-Pacific Partnership. Changes in trade policy would have direct impacts on the San Diego trade industry. According to the International Trade Administration, San Diego exports totaled $18.6 billion and accounted for 10 percent of overall California exports in 2014. San Diego exports to NAFTA regions, Mexico and Canada, were $5.4 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively. China made up another $971 million.

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Click here for the complete San Diego MSA Regional Economic Update: San Diego 2016Q2.

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Detroit Stabilizing on Firmer Real Estate and Labor Markets

Michigan is enjoying widespread prosperity, as prolonged strength in automobile sales and the broader manufacturing complex has acted as a great stabilizing force in the state. It is widely understood that the pace of this improvement in the manufacturing sector will subside, testing the strength of the diversity of the state economy. The economic climate in the state is broadly positive, as housing markets continue to gather momentum, while maintaining affordability, and job growth remains diverse. As reported by the BLS, the strongest year-over-year job growth in Michigan for March was concentrated in the construction, financial activities, professional/business services, and leisure/hospitality sectors. This is an ongoing trend. In the coming year, it is the service sector, paired with improving real estate conditions, that will propel Michigan.

The BLS reported that year-over-year job growth in the Detroit area was outpacing the national average, at 2.2 percent for the year ending in March. Ann Arbor’s employment grew by over four percent over the same period. Both financial services and professional/business services in the Detroit area saw annual growth exceeding four percent for this period. The construction sector remains strong, as development continues across the area. A pullback in auto sales, leading to more tepid manufacturing growth through the remainder of this cycle, means that the majority of job growth for the next year will emerge from the professional sectors currently gaining momentum.

Developers in Detroit are citing the widespread renovation of downtown’s buildings as a reason to build from scratch, like the newly announced Scott at Brush Park multi-use development, coming in at an estimated $65 million. Studies are being conducted on the East Riverfront to formulate a development plan, and Bedrock Detroit continues to snatch up buildings. Detroit home price growth continues to best the national average, but this pressure should cool as the currently strong construction numbers increase supply.

Waves are being made in the region by auto producers, for better and worse. FCA announced a cooperative partnership with Google in the development of automated driving technologies, and the investment of almost $75 million at its Trenton plant. This is on the heels of their layoffs in Sterling Heights. Ford plans to invest part of over $1 billion in its Livonia transmission plant, in addition to the construction of a massive new corporate campus. The thriving business environment is further evidenced by the re-development of two formerly closed hotels. The strength of this environment will be tested however, as auto sales moderate.

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Click here for the complete South East Michigan Regional Economic Update: SEMI 2016Q2.

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Central West Michigan Enjoying Cyclical Peaks

Michigan is enjoying widespread prosperity, as prolonged strength in automobile sales and the broader manufacturing complex has acted as a great stabilizing force in the state. It is widely understood that the pace of this improvement in the manufacturing sector will subside, testing the strength of the diversity of the state economy. The economic climate in the state is broadly positive, as housing markets continue to gather momentum, while maintaining affordability, and job growth remains diverse. As reported by the BLS, the strongest year-over-year job growth in Michigan for March was concentrated in the construction, financial activities, professional/business services, and leisure/hospitality sectors. This is an ongoing trend. In the coming year, it is the service sector, paired with improving real estate conditions, that will propel Michigan.

The Grand Rapids area saw an unemployment rate of 3.4 percent in March, well below the national rate of 5.0 percent. Since midyear 2015, the Grand Rapids area has been adding jobs at a faster pace than the U.S. average. The Grand Rapids Business Journal reports that salary growth in the region ranks seventh nationally. Labor markets are tight, and reports of difficulty in finding people to fill positions from restaurant staff to technical management are surfacing. Although almost one-in-five jobs in the region remains in manufacturing, there has been persistent strength in the construction, financial activities, education/health services, and leisure/hospitality sectors.

Following in step with labor markets, housing markets in Central West Michigan are becoming very tight. The Grand Rapids Association for Realtors reports that the average months of inventory for real estate so far this year is 1.6 months. Over the year ending in March, CoreLogic reports that Grand Rapids area home prices are up 7.7 percent. Commercial real estate remains tight as well, resulting in more new development.

Grand Rapids remains a bright spot in the larger Michigan economy, as its diversity and entrepreneurship show no signs of subsiding. The tech company Switch, who was lured to the area for its next data center, is beginning to hire some of the estimated 1,000 jobs it will add over the next decade. The Medical Mile continues to see new projects, and projects like Studio C!, expected to have a $369 million impact over the next decade, are coming closer to reality. Construction is slated to begin on the $380 million Red Cedar Renaissance development in Lansing this June. Commitment to attracting new industry and growing employment in the region is evident, as initiatives like SmartZones continue to gain footing throughout the region.

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Click here for the complete Central West Michigan Regional Economic Update: CentralWestMI 2016Q2.

 

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. economic data through mid-May remained consistent with an economy that is expanding while it feels the pressures of low oil prices and increasing oil prices at the same time.

Retail sales increased in April by 1.3 percent, the strongest monthly gain since March 2015. Two forces were at work in April. First, auto sales bounced back after dipping in March. On a unit basis, auto sales fell from a 17.4 million unit rate in February, to a 16.6 million unit rate in March, and then rebounded to 17.3 in April. On a dollar basis, retail sales of autos and parts increased by a strong 3.2 percent in April. The second factor was the price of gasoline, which has increased from a low of $1.72 per gallon (national average for unleaded) in mid-February to $2.21 per gallon by the end of April. The nominal value of gasoline station retail sales increased by 2.2 percent in April. Other components of retail sales were generally positive in April, with the exception of building materials, which declined by 1.0 percent. Overall, this was a good report, but that should have been no surprise. After adjusting for price effects, there is a little less to the topline number than meets the eye.

The producer price index for final demand increased by 0.2 percent in April. The energy price index for final demand goods was up by 0.2 percent, following a 1.8 percent gain in March. On a year-over-year basis, the change in the PPI for final demand is back up to zero after an excursion into the negative, which began in February 2015. We expect firming oil prices to support further gains in inflation indicators through May.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March showed an uptick in the job opening rate to 3.9 percent. This tied the mark for the strongest job opening rate since the series began in December 2000.

However, weekly initial claims numbers for unemployment insurance have drifted up. For the week ending May 7, initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 20,000, to hit 294,000. The April 16th initial claims number of 248,000 was a multi-decade low. The bounce off of the mid-April low was fed by an increase in manufacturing layoffs. This trend bears watching. We expect that initial claims will level out in the coming weeks.

Total business inventories increased by 0.4 percent in March as the nominal value of retail inventories gained 1.0 percent. Since this is a first quarter number, it does not impact our Q2 GDP estimate.

The National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index for April increased to 93.6. The index has been on a generally downward trend since hitting a recent peak in December 2015.

The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May increased to 95.8, despite rising gasoline prices.

According to the CME Group, there is only a 7.5 percent chance the Federal Reserve will increase the fed funds rate at the upcoming FOMC meeting over June 14/15. The implied odds of at least one rate hike this year are 62.4 percent.

For a PDF version of the Comerica Economic Weekly, including forecast tables and the variables calendar, click here: CMAEconWeekly 05-13-2016.

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May 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

When you are flying close to the treetops, you have to watch out for the downdrafts. Clearly the U.S. economy was flying close to the treetops in the first quarter of this year. Real GDP growth registered a weak 0.5 percent annualized rate. That is about 0.1 percent quarter-to-quarter growth. The sagging energy sector was a major factor. Real business fixed investment declined at a 1.6 percent annual rate, weighed down by minimal oil drilling activity, minimal need for new oil field equipment and a sagging commercial real estate market in energy states. After adding significantly to GDP growth in early 2015, inventories have been a negative factor for the three consecutive quarters ending in 2016Q1. International trade has also been a consistent drag on GDP, subtracting from GDP growth in seven out of the last nine quarters, including 2016Q1. Oil is part of that story, too, as we are still importing a significant volume of crude oil. With the end of the federal restriction on crude oil exports at the end of last year, there is at least the potential for a more balanced energy trade in the future. Federal defense spending was also a drag on Q1 GDP growth. We are still operating under the federal spending sequester which limits federal discretionary spending. Consumer spending held up in Q1 despite the dip in auto sales. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of GDP, and consumer spending on services accounts for about two-thirds of total consumer spending, and therefore about 45 percent of GDP. With an aging population, consumer spending on medical services, and on other services, is set to increase.

Following on the heels of barely-positive Q1 real GDP, Q2 GDP looks set to increase, but only moderately. We believe that the staggering oil and gas industry will continue to be a weight on GDP growth in the current second quarter. Consumer spending will again be an important counterweight to the energy sector downdraft. Federal government spending will flip back to the positive. Residential construction will continue to be a moderate boost.

The first employment report for Q2, containing the April jobs data, was weaker than expected with 160,000 net nonfarm jobs added for the month. The unemployment rate held steady at five percent. We expect two things out of the labor market over the next two years. First will be a bounce-back in net employment gains in May. The second will be a gradual decline in the pace of job growth, accompanied by a flattening-out of the unemployment rate by late 2017.

We look for tightening conditions in the global oil market through the second half of this year and into 2017. U.S. and other non-OPEC production is declining due to the dearth of drilling. We expect the U.S. rig count to bottom out by late summer. Global demand, including U.S. demand, for petroleum is increasing. Crude oil inventories will start to decline, supporting firmer pricing. Our year-end 2016 price for WTI is $50.

With high crude oil and petroleum product prices, U.S. and global inflation indicators will start to warm up. We have already seen a hint of that in the March import price index. Both the consumer price index and the producer price index for April will show the push from higher oil and product prices. The Fed will be caught between a soft economy and higher prices. We believe they will hold off on raising the fed funds rates until late this year, when the drag from the energy sector dissipates and GDP gains a little altitude.

For a PDF version of the complete Comerica U.S. Monthly with additional commentary, tables, and charts, click here: USEconomicUpdate – May 2016.

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Despite the miss on the April payroll jobs numbers, U.S. economic data this week remained consistent with our expectation for a modest-to-moderate pick up in second quarter GDP growth after a weak first quarter.

April’s net payroll job gains of 160,000 was less than expected. The good news is that more people were employed, they worked longer hours and got paid more for it. The unemployment rate stayed even at 5.0 percent. We expect to see a stronger number when the May data is released on June 3rd.

Nonfarm business productivity decreased at a –1.0 percent annual rate for the first quarter. Over the last year productivity is up just 0.6 percent. Weak productivity growth is still a conundrum. Also, it is disconcerting because the flip side of weak productivity growth is high unit labor cost growth. In the first quarter ULC increased at a strong 4.1 percent annual rate, which will squeeze corporate profits.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 17,000 for the week ending April 30th, to 274,000, still a good number. Continuing claims declined by 8,000 for the week ending April 23, to hit 2,121,000.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for April improved to 50.8 percent, the second consecutive above-50 reading after five months in contraction territory. We will buy some of that back by saying that the gain in the index in April was supported by stronger prices. The price component was influenced by higher oil prices, making the improvement in the headline number less than meets the eye.

Likewise, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for April improved to 55.7 percent, with help from stronger prices. The employment sub-index for the non-mf survey improved to 53.0 percent, indicating ongoing hiring.

The value of construction put in place in March increased by 0.3 percent. Private residential construction was up 1.6 percent. Private nonresidential gained 0.7 percent and public projects declined by 1.9 percent on weaker power plant construction.

The U.S. international trade gap narrowed in March to $40.4 billion. This is not expected to cause a significant revision to the first estimate of Q1 real GDP growth, which was weak at 0.5 percent annualized. The improvement in the trade gap came for the wrong reasons as imports declined by $8 billion for the month.

Auto sales rebounded to a 17.4 million unit rate in April after dipping to 16.6 in March. The next couple of months of auto sales will be interesting. We do not expect sales to exceed the robust 18 million unit sales rate from last fall on a consistent basis. For the year, we expect to see about 17.2 million units sold.

Today’s jobs data reinforces the already low odds of a fed funds rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting over June 14/15. According to the fed funds futures market the odds of a fed funds rate hike at the FOMC meeting is a low 5.6 percent. The implied probability of at least one fed funds rate hike by December of this year now stands at 56 percent. Stronger oil prices would lift those odds.

For a PDF version of the Comerica Economic Weekly, including forecast tables and the variables calendar, click here: CMAEconWeekly 05-06-2016.

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April U.S. Employment

Less-Than-Expected, Not Terrible, Quirky

  • April Payroll Employment increased by a less-than-expected 160,000 jobs.
  • The Unemployment Rate for April was unchanged at 5.0 percent.
  • Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.3 percent, showing moderate wage gains.
  • Average Weekly Hours were increased to 34.5.

April’s net payroll job gains of 160,000 was less than expected, but foreshadowed by Wednesday’s ADP report which showed a similar gain of 156,000 private-sector jobs for the month. The good news is that more people were employed, they worked longer hours and got paid more for it. Recent very strong gains in the labor force reversed themselves in April, as the labor force declined by 362,000 workers. This was not enough to bring the unemployment rate down at the first decimal place, so that stayed even at 5.0 percent. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3 percent for the month, and are up 2.5 percent over the previous 12 months. The increase in the workweek by 0.1 hours to 34.5 came from nonmanufacturing establishments. The April job gain of 160,000 is not a terrible number, but it does show that the string of robust +200K job months that we have enjoyed recently will not continue indefinitely. Also, one month does not make a trend. We expect to see a stronger number when the May data is released on June 3rd. Today’s jobs data reinforces the already low odds of a fed funds rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting over June 14/15. According to the fed funds futures market, the odds of a fed funds rate hike at the FOMC meeting is a low 5.6 percent. The implied probability of at least one fed funds rate hike by December of this year now stands at 56 percent.

The establishment employment data for April was somewhat quirky. It was no surprise to see employment in mining and logging industries down by 8,000. It was a surprise to see construction employment up by only 1,000 workers for the month. Manufacturing as a whole gained 4,000 jobs. Retail trade surprisingly dropped 3,100 jobs for the month. Financial activities gained a stronger 20,000 jobs. Hiring in professional and business services was robust, with employment up by 65,000 jobs. Education and healthcare added a strong 54,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality added a solid 22,000 jobs. The government sector surprisingly lost 11,000 jobs. April is often a quirky month for seasonally adjusted data as weather and holiday effects are significant. It is worth noting that if construction, retail and government would have behaved normally, this would have been another very solid report.

Market Reaction: U.S. equity markets opened with losses. The 10-Year T-bond yield is up to 1.75 percent. NYMEX crude oil is up to $44.48/barrel. Natural gas futures are up to $2.09/mmbtu.

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For a PDF version of this Comerica Economic Alert click here: Employment 05-06-16.

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April ADP Jobs, ISM Non-MF, Auto Sales, March International Trade

Job Growth Eases, Service Sector Up, Autos Back on Track, Trade Gap Narrows

  • The April ADP Employment Report showed a less-than-expected gain of 156,000 private-sector jobs.
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased in April to 55.7 on pricing and new orders.
  • Light Vehicle Sales for April increased to a 17.4 million unit rate.
  • The U.S. International Trade Gap narrowed in March to $40.4 billion as imports eased.

The April ADP Employment Report, which provides a preliminary view on private-sector employment, showed an increase of 156,000 jobs for the month, which was less than expected. The ADP data implies that the official Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report for April, which is due out Friday morning at 7:30 Central time, will also fall below expectations. Consensus expectations for Friday’s payroll gain were about 205,000 as of yesterday. If we take the ADP number as a reasonable estimator and add our guess of about 5,000 government sector jobs for the month, that gives us an estimate of a net gain of 161,000 nonfarm payroll jobs for April. This will be viewed as a downside miss and likely reinforce the Federal Reserve’s ongoing caution in its interest rate policy. We believe that the Federal Reserve will have enough cause for pause to leave the fed funds rate unchanged at its upcoming FOMC meeting over June 14/15. Large businesses were the weak link in today’s ADP Report, adding 24,000 jobs in April. Small businesses did their part, adding 93,000 jobs. Medium-sized businesses (between 50 and 499 employees) added 39,000 jobs in April.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for April improved to 55.7 from March’s 54.5. All ten sub-indexes were above 50, indicating improving conditions across the board. Thirteen reporting industries said they grew in April. Four said they contracted, including mining. Anecdotal comments were generally positive.

Auto sales accelerated in April from March’s 16.6 million unit pace to a 17.4 million unit rate. Sales of domestic trucks did the heavy lifting. Over the next few months we will see whether auto sales can regain their robust 18.2 million unit sales rate held from last September through November. We expect auto sales to total about 17.2 million units this year and ease going into 2017. Incentives can help drive sales in the latter stages of the sales cycle, but they eat into corporate profits and often cannibalize sales from subsequent months.

The U.S. international trade gap narrowed significantly in March from February’s -$47.0 billion, to -$40.4 billion. The big move came from imports of goods, which dropped by $8 billion for the month as non-auto consumer goods imports eased. We expect trade to continue to be a mild-to-moderate drag on GDP in the current second quarter.

Market Reaction: U.S. stock prices opened with losses. The yield in 10-Year T-bonds is down to 1.80 percent. NYMEX crude oil is up to $44.00/barrel. Natural gas futures are up to $2.14/mmbtu.

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For a PDF version of this Comerica Economic Alert click here: ADP 05-04-16.

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Comerica Economic Weekly

As we close out first quarter U.S. data releases it has become obvious that the U.S. economy lost significant momentum over the winter.

First quarter 2016 real GDP growth was a weak 0.5 percent annualized growth. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, real Q1 GDP increased by just 0.1 percent. Weak oil and the strong dollar were key culprits. Business fixed investment was down as consolidation in the energy sector drained the structures and equipment components. Exports declined, pulling the trade gap wider. Despite the gathering gloom in some parts of the economy, other areas continued to perform well. Solid consumer spending on services supported overall consumer spending even as auto sales fell below the very strong 2015Q4 pace. Residential investment increased at a 14.8 percent annual rate in Q4. State and local government spending increased at a solid 2.9 percent annualized rate.

Nominal personal income increased by 0.4 percent in March while nominal consumer spending gained just 0.1 percent. The PCE price index gained 0.1 percent for the month. Going forward, higher energy prices will start to push inflation indicators up.

The price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil broke through $45 at the end of this week. Gasoline prices are up too. The national average for unleaded regular gasoline hit $2.13 for the week ending April 22, up 42 cents from the mid-February low.

Mortgage rates fell through April, with 30 year fixed rate mortgages hitting 3.5 percent. Anecdotal evidence suggests that mortgage apps for purchase and refi jumped. New home sales for March increased by 1.5 percent to a 511,000 unit rate. We expect to see more new homes sales in the April data.

House prices are still increasing. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index for February was up by 0.4 percent for the month and 5.3 percent over the previous 12 months.

Unemployment claims data remains solid. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 9,000, to 257,000 for the week ending April 23rd. Continuing claims fell by 5,000 to hit 2,130,000 for the week ending April 16th.

New orders for durable goods gained 0.8 percent in March, bouncing back from a 3.1 percent decline in February. Manufacturing indicators have improved a little over the last month, but we do not expect to see a fundamental improvement in current soft conditions.

The Bank of Japan held key interest rates steady there this week despite expectations that they could go more negative. The yen surged on the news. Japan lead global stock markets down at the end of the week.

The Federal Reserve left key interest rates steady here, with no expectation that they would do anything else. The Fed’s assessment of current economic conditions went in two directions at once, saying that labor conditions have improved while economic activity slowed. The FOMC communique provided no hints that a rate hike is pending in June.

According to the CME Group, the fed funds futures market shows only a 15 percent probability that the FOMC will raise the fed funds rate at its next meeting over June 14 and 15. Fed funds futures show a 61 percent probability that there will be at least one 25 basis point fed funds rate increase by the end of this year. The odds of two 25 basis point rate hikes this year diminishes to about 20 percent, according to the CME group.

For a PDF version of the Comerica Economic Weekly, including forecast tables and the variables calendar, click here: CMAEconWeekly 04-29-2016.

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2016Q1 GDP, April UI Claims, FOMC

Weak First Quarter GDP Dragged Down by Business Investment, Inventories, Trade, Defense

  • Real Gross Domestic Product for 2016Q1 increased at a weak 0.5 percent annual rate.
  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance increased by 9,000 to 257,000 for the week ending April 23.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee left short term interest rates unchanged.

First quarter 2016 real GDP growth was a weak 0.5 percent, held down by sagging business investment, a drop in inventory accumulation, a deteriorating trade balance and a drop in federal defense spending. The sag through Q1 comes on the heels of a soft 2015Q4, when real GDP growth increased by just 1.4 percent. For the most part, this is a backward-looking number. We expect real GDP growth to increase moderately in the current quarter and beyond. However, today’s weak GDP print shows how the strong dollar and soft global demand are weighing on the trade balance. Imports increased slightly from Q4, but exports declined for the second straight quarter, reducing real GDP growth by 0.34 percent in Q1. It also shows the dark side of the surge in inventories that we saw through the first half of 2015, which boosted GDP growth then. Now, as inventory accumulation declines appropriately, it is a drag on headline GDP growth, reducing it by 0.33 percent in Q1. Business fixed investment was weak across the board. The consolidating energy sector is a key factor in declining business investment in structures and in equipment. Declining fixed business investment pulled real GDP growth down by 0.76 percent. Finally, federal defense spending was a drag in Q1 GDP, subtracting 0.15 percent from topline growth. Previously, we have made the case that consumer spending will be a stabilizing force in the economy this year. That is exactly what happened in Q1. Despite the drag from declining auto sales, strong consumer spending on services kept GDP growth positive for the quarter.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 9,000, to 257,000 for the week ending April 23rd. Continuing claims fell by 5,000 to hit 2,130,000 for the week ending April 16th. Claims data remains solid.

Yesterday, as widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate unchanged. The assessment of current economic conditions went in two directions at once, saying that labor conditions have improved while economic activity slowed. The FOMC communique provided no hints that a rate hike is pending in June. According to the CME Group, the fed funds futures market shows only a 15 percent probability that the FOMC will raise the fed funds rate at its next meeting over June 14 and 15. We will be revising our interest rate forecast in early May to show only one fed funds rate hike this year, of 25 basis points, coming in December.

Market Reaction: Equity markets opened with gains. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is up to 1.86 percent. NYMEX crude oil is up to $45.43/barrel. Natural gas futures are down to $2.08/mmbtu.

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For a PDF version of this Comerica Economic Alert click here: GDP 04-28-16.

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