August 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Q2 GDP Bounce-Back Confirmed, but Rapid Growth is Not Sustainable

The first estimate of Q2 real GDP growth exceeded expectations at 4.0 percent. Q2 GDP was boosted by an unsustainable surge in inventories, accounting for 1.7 percentage points of the 4.0 percent growth rate. Nominal inventories increased by $110 billion in Q2, after growing by just $40 billion in Q1. Theoretically, in a steady-state economy, inventories would not add much to GDP growth. However, this is not a steady-state economy. The components of GDP are still changing significantly on a quarter-to-quarter basis. The average nominal change in quarterly inventories since 2010Q1 has been about $62 billion. So it looks like inventory accumulation should ease going forward, pulling current quarter real GDP growth back down to earth, near 2.2 percent.

Another component of GDP, federal government spending, is also changing. Federal consumption and investment expenditures have been a drag on GDP for 13 out of the last 15 quarters, exacerbated by the Budget Control Act of 2011 which introduced the word “sequestration” to the economic lexicon. Federal discretionary spending for 2014 is projected to be just shy of $1.2 trillion, or $153 billion below the 2010 level. The drag from the spending sequester begins to ease in the second half of this year, supporting marginally stronger GDP growth going forward. That is not to say that the federal spending spigot is being opened wide. Rather, nominal federal discretionary spending is projected by the Congressional Budget Office to stay stuck near the 2014 level through 2017, and then begin to lift. Of course, by 2017 we will have a new President and spending priorities may change.

Payroll employment gains totaled 209,000 in July, marking the sixth consecutive month of +200K job growth. The unemployment rate ticked up inconsequentially to 6.2 percent and will likely resume its downward track very soon. The Employment Cost Index for 2014Q2 jumped by 0.7 percent, indicating that tightening labor markets may be starting to put some upward pressure on business costs. To be complete, the biggest push from the ECI recently has come from benefits. Wages and salaries were up by 1.8 percent for the year ending in June, while benefits were up 2.5 percent.

The Federal Reserve remains on track to end its active asset purchase program in October. Passive QE (the reinvestment of maturing assets) will continue to put downward pressure on the long-end of the yield curve well after the end of active QE. We look for interest rate liftoff in 2015Q2. Recent regulatory changes to money-market mutual funds may increase demand for Treasury bills, adding a buffering force to interest rate liftoff next year.

For a PDF version of the complete Comerica U.S. Monthly with additional commentary, tables, and charts, click here: USEconomicUpdate0814.

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. economic data from the last week of July show a good start to Q3, but likely lower GDP growth than we saw in Q2. The first estimate of 2014Q2 real GDP growth came in stronger than expected, at a 4.0 percent annual rate. Overall, it was a solid, if unsustainable, report. The solid component was real consumer spending, up at a 2.5 percent annual rate, well above the weather-beaten 1.2 percent growth rate for the first quarter of this year. The unsustainable component of the GDP report was the unexpected ramp-up in inventories. Real inventory accumulation for the quarter was $93.4 billion ($2009), which boosted headline GDP growth by 1.7 percent.

The U.S. economy added 209,000 payroll jobs in July, the sixth consecutive month of +200K job gains. This includes April and June when about 300K jobs were added. These are healthy mid-cycle numbers consistent with rapid improvement in labor market conditions and ongoing moderate GDP growth. Still, today’s job’s report was not stellar, and that may be good news for equity markets. After yesterday’s selloff, today’s jobs report does not put additional pressure on the Fed to accelerate its schedule for interest rate liftoff, which would be a damper on equity markets. The unemployment rate ticked up inconsequentially from 6.1 percent to 6.2 percent.

The Employment Cost Index for Q2 showed a stronger-than-expected 0.7 percent increase, suggesting that tighter labor markets are beginning to exert some inflationary pressure. Over the previous 12 months, the ECI was up a moderate 2.0 percent.

June income and spending numbers were good, showing support from recent strong job growth. Nominal income was up by 0.4 percent, as was nominal consumer spending. Data revisions show a stronger U.S. saving rate than previously reported. In June, the personal saving rate increased to 5.3 percent.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for July increased to 57.1, showing good and improving overall manufacturing conditions. The employment sub-index for July increased to a strong 58.4, setting up positive expectations for August manufacturing employment.

Construction spending for June dipped by 1.8 percent as both private and public spending eased. Private residential construction spending dipped slightly by 0.3 percent for the month. Private nonresidential was down by 1.6 percent. Public construction spending was a bigger drag, down 4.0 percent for the month possibly related to delays in Congress in securing transportation funding (now resolved).

Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 23,000 to hit a still-low 302,000 for the week ending July 26. Continuing claims for the week ending July 19 increased by 31,000 to hit 2,539,000.

The Federal Open Market Committee did as expected, voting on Wednesday to further reduce their asset purchase program by another $10 billion. The Fed remains on track to completely eliminate active quantitative easing at the end of October. There was no change to near-zero interest rate policy. We continue to look for interest rate lift-off in 2015Q2.

For a PDF version of the Comerica Economic Weekly, including forecast tables and the variables calendar, click here: CMAEconWeekly 08-01-14.

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July U.S. Employment, June Income and Spending

Solid Job Growth Shows Ongoing Improvement to U.S. Economy

  • July U.S. Payroll Employment increased by 209,000 jobs. May and June were revised up by 15,000.
  • The Unemployment Rate for July ticked up inconsequentially to 6.2 percent.
  • Average Hourly Earnings were essentially flat in July, and were up 2.0 percent over the last year.
  • Nominal Personal Income for June was up by 0.4 percent, supported improving labor markets.
  • Nominal Consumer Spending was also up 0.4 percent; 0.2 percent after inflation.

The U.S. economy added 209,000 payroll jobs in July, the sixth consecutive month of +200K job gains. This includes April and June when about 300K jobs were added. These are solid mid-cycle numbers consistent with rapid improvement in labor market conditions and ongoing moderate GDP growth. Still, today’s job’s report was not stellar, and that may be good news for equity markets. After yesterday’s selloff, today’s jobs report does not put additional pressure on the Fed to accelerate its schedule for interest rate liftoff, which would be a damper on equity markets. The average workweek for all employees was unchanged for the fifth straight month at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings in July increased by a penny to $24.45, and are up 2.0 percent over the previous 12 months. The unemployment rate ticked up inconsequentially from 6.1 percent to 6.2 percent. The gains in the unemployment rate came as the civilian labor force increased by a strong 329,000 in July, perhaps catching up from a very weak April number. The U-6 unemployment rate, which captures marginally attached plus under-utilized workers, ticked up to 12.2 percent.

Job growth was widespread across industries. Construction added 22,000 jobs. Manufacturing was up 28,000 jobs, boosted by gains in transportation equipment. Retail trade employment added 26,700. Financial services gained 7,000 jobs, mostly in securities/investments. Professional and business services employment increased by 47,000 jobs. Education and healthcare added 17,000 jobs, below average for that sector. Leisure and hospitality services employment was up by 21,000. Government employment increased by 11,000 jobs. The government sector was a drag on total employment through 2012 and 2013, but that is no longer the case in 2014.

June income and spending numbers were good, setting up a positive start to the third quarter. Data revisions show a stronger U.S. saving rate than previously reported. In June the personal saving rate increased to 5.3 percent.

Market Reaction: U.S. equity markets opened with gains after yesterday’s selloff. The 10-Year T-bond yield is down to 2.55 percent. NYMEX crude is down to $97.47/barrel. Natural gas futures are down to $3.80/mmbtu.

Economic Alert 080114

For a PDF version of this Comerica Economic Alert click here: Employment 08-01-14.

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2014Q2 GDP, July ADP Employment

Inventory Rebound Propels Q2 GDP, Job Growth Continues

  • Real Gross Domestic Product growth for 2014Q2 was stronger than expected at 4.0 percent.
  • Inventories rebounded after a weak first quarter, adding 1.7 percent to real GDP growth, not sustainable.
  • Real Consumer Spending increased at a 2.5 percent annual rate, as auto sales accelerated.
  • The ADP Employment Report for July showed a solid gain of 218,000 private-sector jobs for the month.

The first estimate of 2014Q2 real GDP growth came in stronger than expected, at a 4.0 percent annual rate. Overall, it was a solid, if unsustainable, report. The solid component was real consumer spending, up at a 2.5 percent annual rate, well above the weather-beaten 1.2 percent growth rate for the first quarter of this year. Auto sales were an important factor. Auto sales hit a 17.0 million unit rate for June. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that real consumer spending on durable goods (including cars) for Q2 increased at a 14.0 percent annual rate. Spending on nondurables was also good, increasing to a 2.5 percent growth rate. The services component of consumer spending was a little weak, gaining just 0.7 percent. We could see some revision there later on. The unsustainable component of the GDP report was the unexpected ramp-up in inventories. Real inventory accumulation for the quarter was $93.4 billion ($2009), which added almost $60 billion (real) to the increase in Q2 GDP, boosting headline GDP growth by 1.7 percent. Ninety-three billion for the quarter is not sustainable and leads us to expect that inventories will be a small-to-moderate drag on Q3 GDP. Fixed (non-inventory) business investment accelerated in Q2, adding 0.9 percent to headline GDP growth. Exports were assumed to be a moderate drag for the quarter. Federal spending was a slight drag, inhibited by the federal budget sequester. State and local government spending more than compensated for the slight drag from federal spending, adding 0.4 percent to headline GDP growth.

Adding to the good economic news, the ADP Employment Report for July showed an increase of 218,000 private-sector jobs for the month, about as expected. This bodes well for Friday’s official BLS employment report. Plus 220,000 is a reasonable expectation for the official numbers on Friday. That would extend the winning streak of consecutive +200k months to six. With good news from GDP and labor markets, the Federal Open Market Committee can be expected to announce another $10 billion reduction in their asset purchase program later today.

Market Reaction: Equity markets opened with gains, but quickly normalized. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is up to 2.52 percent. NYMEX crude oil is up to $101.39/barrel. Natural gas futures are down to $3.76/mmbtu.

Economic Alert 073014

For a PDF version of this Comerica Economic Alert click here: GDP 07-30-14.

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Comerica Bank’s Florida Index Gains in May

Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index increased by 0.4 percentage points in May, to a level of 116.2. May’s index reading is 36 points, or 45 percent, above the index cyclical low of 80.4. The index averaged 114 in 2013, nine points above the average for all of 2012. April’s index reading was revised up to 115.8.

“Our Florida Economic Activity Index improved in May, reversing a slight two-month decline. Most components of the index increased in May; however, payroll employment showed a slight decline. Recent job growth has generally been faster than the U.S. average, and we expect that to continue through the second half of this year,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “House price appreciation has slowed in both Miami and Tampa, consistent with trends visible in most major markets across the U.S.”

FL Index 0714

For a PDF version of the Florida Economic Activity Index click here: FloridaIndex_0714.

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Comerica Bank’s Arizona Index Continues to Improve in May

Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index advanced in May, increasing 3.1 percentage points to a level of 110.2. May’s index reading is 39 points, or 55 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.2. The index averaged 97 points for all of 2013, 10 points above the average for full-year 2012. April’s index reading was unchanged at 107.1.

“Our Arizona Economic Activity Index increased in May, indicating ongoing gains to the Arizona economy. The Arizona Index has increased for seven consecutive months, driven by job creation and by recovering residential real estate markets. We expect to see an overall improving trend in the index through the remainder of this year, but the pace of improvement will likely slow from what we have seen through the first five months of 2014,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “House prices in Phoenix are generally up about 8 percent over the previous 12 months, but recently the pace of appreciation appears to be cooling.”

AZ Index 0714

For a PDF version of the Arizona Economic Activity Index click here: ArizonaIndex_0714.

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Comerica Bank’s California Index Ticks Down in May

Comerica Bank’s California Economic Activity Index eased in May, declining 0.4 percentage points to a level of 112.9. May’s reading is 40 points, or 56 percent, above the index cyclical low of 72.6. The index averaged 106 points for all of 2013, five points above the average for all of 2012. April’s index reading was revised up to 113.3.

“Our California Economic Activity Index for May gave back just a little of the solid gain that we saw in April. State labor market conditions continue to improve. In May, California’s payroll employment total of 15,448,600 eclipsed the pre-recession high from August 2007. Also, residential real estate conditions are improving across the state,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “However, we are seeing some softs spots in the data stream. Notably, state exports are subdued as are sales tax collections. Overall, we expect the California economy to continue to grow moderately through the second half of this year and into 2015.”

CA Index 0714

For a PDF version of the California Economic Activity Index click here: CaliforniaIndex_0714.

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Comerica Bank’s Texas Index Climbs Again in May

Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index advanced 1.7 percentage points in May to a level of 110.8. May’s reading is 39 points, or 55 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.7. The index averaged 105 points for all of 2013, three points above the average for full-year 2012. April’s index reading was revised slightly down to 109.1.

“Our Texas Index climbed again in May, driven by ongoing strong job creation, export growth and tax revenues. Energy prices remain supportive of elevated drilling activity. The drilling rig count for Texas remains high after climbing significantly this spring. The slight relaxation of the decades-old ban on crude oil exports to allow for condensate exports is a small positive for the state’s economy,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “Demographic momentum is strong and will continue to fuel construction activity. We expect to see robust gains in the Texas economy through the second half of this year.”

TX Index 0714

For a PDF version of the Texas Economic Activity Index, click here: TexasIndex_0714.

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Comerica Bank’s Michigan Index Rebounds in May

Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index improved in May, increasing 4.3 percentage points to a level of 124.0. May’s reading is 52 points, or 72 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.9. The index averaged 125 for all of 2013, 11 points above the index average for 2012. April’s index reading was revised slightly down to 119.7.

“Our Michigan Index ended a six-month slide by rebounding in May, as all seven components improved for the month. Fortunately, the state has shown gains in payroll employment in May and also in June. (June date does not figure into our May index). The previously weak employment trend has been a source for concern about the state economy. If the state can consistently add jobs through the second half of the year, that would be a reassuring signal,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “In addition to employment, exports, sales tax, hotel occupancy, unemployment insurance claims, residential building permits and vehicle assemblies all showed signs of improvement in May.”

MI Index 0714

For a PDF version of the Michigan Economic Activity Index click here: Michigan0714.

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Comerica Economic Weekly

U.S. economic data was generally a little softer than expected this week. This is not surprising given the spate of stronger-than-expected data we have seen through early summer. Even though data was soft, it remains consistent with our view that the U.S. economy bounced back quickly from a dismal first quarter, and will maintain a moderate growth trajectory for the remainder of this year.

Retail sales for June increased by just 0.2 percent, even after a jump in unit auto sales to a 17.0 million unit rate for the month. In a data disconnect, the dollar value of retail auto sales fell by 0.3 percent in June. Building materials sales fell by 1.0 percent, consistent with softer housing starts. The commonality there might be the weather. June was very rainy in some areas. Other categories of retail sales were within normal ranges.

Housing starts fell by 9.3 percent in June to 893,000. Permits were down 4.2 percent to 963,000. However, builder confidence increased in July.

Industrial production also gained an uninspired 0.2 percent in June. Utility output declined for the fifth consecutive month, after seasonal adjustment. Manufacturing output was weaker than expected, up just 0.1 percent, weighed down by a decline in energy products.

The June producer price index for final demand increased by a stronger-than-expected 0.4 percent, due to higher energy prices. We may see some relief in energy prices in the July and August PPI data.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending June 12 fell by 3,000 to hit 302,000. This number is consistent with a falling unemployment rate.

Business inventories gained 0.5 percent in May, suggesting that the Q1 inventory drag is dissipating and adding support to our expectation of a Q2 GDP rebound. The first estimate of Q2 GDP will  be released July 30.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index gained 0.3 percent in June, also below consensus expectations. It was held down by building permits.

For a PDF version of the Comerica Economic Weekly, including forecast tables and the variables calendar, click here: CMAEconWeekly 07-18-14.

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