Tag Archives: economy

March 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Weak Q1 But Fundamentals Still Look Good We expect to see a weak first quarter when the advance estimate of 2014Q1 GDP is published at the end of April. Weather impacted almost all economic metrics this winter. Personal consumption was … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Most U.S. economic data this week shows the adverse impact of much-worse-than-normal winter weather. However, there is a current of momentum beneath the ice. The Conference Board’s Leading Index increased by 0.3 percent in January. Both the coincident and the … Continue reading

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February 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The Outlook for 2014 is Positive, But There Will Be Bumps We provide a grade of our economic outlook as a high-level assessment of our near-term expectations for the U.S. economy. A “C” rated outlook is consistent with a moderate … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Payroll employment expanded by 113,000 jobs in January, below expectations. This follows on the heels of a weak December report, when only 75,000 jobs were added. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent in January, just above the Federal Reserve’s … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It was a light week for U.S. economic data. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index gained just 0.1 percent in December. The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and the fed funds rate continues to keep the index in … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Texas Index Expands in November

Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index increased 2.4 percentage points in November to a level of 109.9. The November reading is 38 points, or 53 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.6. The index averaged 102 points for all … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Michigan Index Eased in November

Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index decreased slightly in November, down 0.2 percentage point to a level of 131.4. November’s reading is 59 points, or 82 percent, above the index cyclical low of 72.1. The index averaged 114 for all … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Economic data for the end of 2013 are generally consistent with the view that the economy will gradually pick up momentum in 2014. A key outlier in the data stream was the December jobs report, which showed a meager gain … Continue reading

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Into the Weeds: A look at Two Obscure Labor Market Indicators

Assessing the health of the U.S. labor market is an important concern of economists and policy makers. The Great Recession cut household employment by 8.6 million jobs from November 2007 to December 2009.  Since the nadir, we have gained back … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

Like a polar vortex, the official December jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts a big chill on our previously sanguine economic outlook. Payroll jobs increased by just 74,000 in December. Countering some of the December freeze, November … Continue reading

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