Tag Archives: forecast

The Inventory Swing and the Fiscal Cliff Increase Odds of Mid‐Year Lull

Real GDP growth for the recently completed first quarter of 2013 appears likely to exceed earlier expectations when the first estimate is released on April 26. Despite the drag from fiscal tightening, real GDP growth is set to register in … Continue reading

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U.S. Economy Maintains Momentum As Fiscal Headwinds Increase

The federal spending sequester took effect March 1. The $85 billion reduction in federal defense and nondefense discretionary spending for FY2013 is expected to exert about a 0.6 percent drag on real GDP growth for 2013. This adds to the … Continue reading

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Comerica Economic Weekly

It was a light week for economic data with nothing to dispel the fog that has settled over the current quarter as  we wait to see how consumers react to fiscal tightening. Strong income growth in December due to tax-avoidance … Continue reading

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Animal Spirits, Monetary Stimulus and Fiscal Tightening

In their 2009 book entitled “Animal Spirits,” George Akerlof and Robert Shiller characterize the term as a “restless and inconsistent element in the economy…sometimes we are paralyzed by it. Yet at other times it refreshes and energizes us, overcoming our … Continue reading

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