Tag Archives: monthly

February 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

We believe that household balance sheets will be a source of strength and stability for the U.S. economy in 2016, even with the choppy start to the year. That is not to say that consumers will spend rabidly and aggressively … Continue reading

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January 2016, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

We begin 2016 with expectations of ongoing moderate growth for the U.S. economy. Real GDP growth steps down from 2.4 percent in 2015, to about 2.1 percent for all of 2016. Strong job growth, low gasoline prices, easier mortgage credit, … Continue reading

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December 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Janet Yellen’s speech of September 24 articulated her views on inflation, concluding that below-2-percent inflation was attributable to special factors that would prove transitory. We assume that she still has that view. Even with oil prices now below $40 per … Continue reading

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November 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

After two weaker-than-expected payroll job gains in August and September, job growth bounced back in October, with payrolls up a robust 271,000 for the month. The disappointing August and September payrolls total were also revised up by 12,000 jobs, not … Continue reading

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October 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Time does not cause recessions, but time does allow imbalances to accumulate that will eventually drag us back into recession. We are entering the 76th month of expansion, counting from July 2009. The last four expansions, including the current one, … Continue reading

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September 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Our July headline for the U.S. Economic Update was Greece, China, Oil and the Fed. We took Greece out of our September headline because, at least for the near term, Greece is no longer driving financial market volatility. However, in … Continue reading

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July 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

Greece is flirting with disaster. The referendum of July 5th, rejecting bailout terms, added no clarity to the path for Greece and the European Union. Last minute final final negotiations could not be more important for the citizens of Greece, … Continue reading

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June 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The mystery number known as Q1 real gross domestic product growth is currently set at -0.7 percent. That may not be its final resting place. On July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its annual revision for the … Continue reading

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May 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

You never cross the same river twice. This also is true of the complex adaptive system known as the U.S. economy; it is always changing. As we muddle through the current business cycle, three distinct economic periods are apparent. First … Continue reading

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April 2015, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

If Punxsutawney Phil was an economist instead of a groundhog, he would have said on February 2, “six more weeks of soft data.” It was a bad winter for much of the country, and like the cold weather, soft economic … Continue reading

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