Tag Archives: monthly

February 2014, Comerica U.S. Economic Update

The Outlook for 2014 is Positive, But There Will Be Bumps We provide a grade of our economic outlook as a high-level assessment of our near-term expectations for the U.S. economy. A “C” rated outlook is consistent with a moderate … Continue reading

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Into the Weeds: A look at Two Obscure Labor Market Indicators

Assessing the health of the U.S. labor market is an important concern of economists and policy makers. The Great Recession cut household employment by 8.6 million jobs from November 2007 to December 2009.  Since the nadir, we have gained back … Continue reading

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Better Data Nudge Fed Closer to Taper, A Budget Deal Would Make it Easier

Recent U.S. economic data has generally been stronger than expected. Payroll jobs increased by 203,000 in November, following a 200,000 job gain in October. The separate household employment survey, which took a 735,000 job dive in October because of the … Continue reading

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The First Hints of the Yellen Fed

In her prepared remarks for her Senate confirmation hearing, Janet Yellen gave no specific recommendations for monetary policy changes. She is widely expected to be confirmed as the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee later this year. She … Continue reading

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Uncertainty Redux: This Time It Is Entirely Self Imposed

Uncertainty has reared its ugly head again. This time it is entirely self imposed. The congressional budget impasse and the potential spillover to the debt ceiling has elevated uncertainty and will likely depress business and consumer confidence in October. The … Continue reading

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Incipient Normalcy and the New Abnormal

Aspects of the U.S. economy are beginning to act more normally. House prices are up 12 percent over last year. Auto sales hit a 16.1 million unit rate in August. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are back to pre-recession levels. … Continue reading

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Q2 Looking Better and Better, Teeing up Growth for 2013 H2

Remember that they call it the dismal science for a reason, when you recall how gloomy the forecasts were for second quarter real GDP growth. Some forecasters warned about the possibility of a negative quarter. The advance (first) estimate of … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Arizona Index Up in May

Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index steadily increased in May, rising 1.5 percentage points to a level of 96.5. The May index reading is 25.2 points, or 35 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.3. The index averaged 87.2 … Continue reading

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A Weak Q2, But Increasing Momentum Through H2

The recently completed second quarter looks vulnerable to a weak GDP print. The drag from fiscal tightening will combine with mediocre business investment, a widening trade gap and weak inventory accumulation to bring overall economic growth back into the “weak-to-modest” … Continue reading

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Comerica Bank’s Arizona Index Up in April

Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index climbed slightly in April, rising 0.2 percentage points to a level of 95.0. The April index reading is 23.7 points, or 33 percent, above the index cyclical low of 71.3. The index averaged 87.2 … Continue reading

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